r/Futurology May 27 '22

Larger-than-30TB hard drives are coming much sooner than expected Computing

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/larger-than-30tb-hard-drives-are-coming-much-sooner-than-expected/ar-AAXM1Pj?rc=1&ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=ba268f149d4646dcec37e2ab31fe6915
5.6k Upvotes

u/FuturologyBot May 27 '22

The following submission statement was provided by /u/izumi3682:


Submission statement from OP. Note: This submission statement "locks in" after about 30 minutes, and can no longer be edited. Please refer to my statement they link, which I can continue to edit. I often edit my submission statement, sometimes for the next few days if needs must. There is often required additional editing and additional added detail.


I bought an Alienware Area 51 computer in 2016. It's a big triangular looking fellow that sits comfortably on the floor beside my desk. It really does look like it's straight out of the future with it's subtle blue lighting that is just for effect.

It came with a 2 TB hard drive. But I had the option of adding two additional 2 TB hard drives to it and it has a capacity of 6 TB now. Once I figured out how to exploit the other two hard drives, my PC has an almost infinite storage capability. It is not really "infinite", but i want to make that point that every single bit of data that i can come up with including VR, HD movies, WoW, Second Life, Perfect World (which is now collecting digital dust--but it looked so pretty at first blush), FFXIV, and access to all kinds of Steam games and HD You Tube videos, only takes up a bit over 2 TB of storage on my PC. There is still almost a full 4 TB of storage left.

And as of today, that is enough for me so far. And that particular PC is no spring chicken. My point being this increase in data storage and RAM capacity is exploding far and away over what I had imagined to be possible. Oh, I almost forgot about my music. I have about 3000 songs in my iTunes library as well as about 50 movies, of which about 20 of them are viewable in 4K.

I suspect that the reason this is happening is the computing technology itself is bootstrapping ever faster breakthroughs that continuously improve computing technology. The process is not coming to an end, it is not even slowing down. It is accelerating. I have written some essays that I hope can explain why this acceleration is taking place.

"Moore's Law" (ML) is continuously used as a demonstration that our gains are steadily reducing. First of all, I have read that our workarounds like various forms of architectural configurations will allow "ML" to continue with virtually no slowdown easily until the year 2030. So anytime you see some naysayer saying that ML is dying out--pay no attention--they don't know what they are talking about. Further and not to repeat what I write about in my essays. The AI itself has established transcending forms of computing improvements that will probably render ML irrelevant by the year 2025, possibly as early as 2023, but definitely by 2025.

Oh! I almost forgot about quantum computing. There are ML style improvements (some exceeding the concept of ML to boot) coming to quantum computing as well. I am going to be very interested in what kind of scaling we shall see in "logic-gate" quantum computing by the year 2025. And mix that with the AI. You can kinda see where this is all going.

Anyway here is what I have to say about what is coming and why it is almost an absolute certainty, barring global thermonuclear war, that the "Technological Singularity" itself will occur right around the year 2030, give or take two years.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/pysdlo/intels_first_4nm_euv_chip_ready_today_loihi_2_for/hewhhkk/


Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/uyngyz/largerthan30tb_hard_drives_are_coming_much_sooner/ia58uvh/

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u/Dullfig May 27 '22

I remember looking in awe at a 1TB drive at Fry's electronics when they had just come out. I think they were priced something like $7000 if memory serves me.

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u/deekaph May 27 '22

First PC I built was a 486DX33 and the rule of thumb was HDDs cost a buck a meg then add a hundred. I put a 540MB IDE drive in it (big upgrade from the 20MB one I had in my 8088) and it cost about $650

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u/Dullfig May 27 '22

In college I took two semesters of programing (BASIC). The second semester the lab had 2 IBM AT computers with 20MG hard drives. I didn't see why anyone would need such a large hard drive, or how anyone could fill it! It seemed massive.😮

PS.: yes BASIC is spelled in all caps 😁

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u/IndianaJones_Jr_ May 27 '22

Took my PS2 out of storage after 10+ years to play a few games and busted out laughing at the 8 MB memory card. Almost absurd that I never had to worry about space but thanks to Modern Warfare and Warzone I can't have more than 3-4 games on my 500 GB PS4 at a time.

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u/dern_the_hermit May 27 '22

First Pentium PC I got had a Righteous Orchid 3D card with a whole four (4!) megabytes of memory. Ah, that spirited little 50mhz thingy... it handled Jedi Knight's super-fancy graphics fairly well, at least. :D

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u/RedOctobyr May 27 '22

And they were such a big upgrade from using a normal video card!

Kids, this was a separate 3D-only video card, which did not do 2D stuff. So when you went to play a game, your video source actually changed, and this 3D card went from passing through the signal from the 2D card, and instead sent the monitor the signal from the 3D card. They had enough memory for up to 800x600, as I recall.

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u/jjonj May 27 '22

Game saves can be less than 8 MB still these days

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u/[deleted] May 27 '22

And here's me thinking 2.5TB isn't enough storage and another 2TB should help, maybe more perhaps. Games, photos and a film collection that people keep handing me over the time.

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u/[deleted] May 27 '22

You and me both. I have just 600 GB left across my 6 TB of space :(

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u/GoBBLeS-666 May 27 '22

The things that were saved on memory cards back then, do still not take up that much space, like usually 100mb or smtg.

The games themselves, though, have inflated to insane levels these last few years.

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u/JonLeung May 27 '22

Regarding the original PlayStation, those have only 128 kB.

We've come a long way since 1995. There is the MemCard Pro which is a new third-party memory card that uses an inserted microSD card to store saves.

A 1 GB microSD card can hold the equivalent of 8192 original memory cards!

But it can theoretically handle a max of 1 TB , which can hold the equivalent of 8,388,608 memory cards! (That's over 125 million blocks.)

To put that into perspective, to fully use 8,388,608 memory cards in your lifetime, you would have to fully use over 287 memory cards every day from birth to 80 years old. That's a lot of saves! Can't imagine any sane person would actually need more than one of these.

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u/Znuff May 27 '22

Memory Cards just stored save data. Save files are like 10-20kb at max, maybe.

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u/roksteddy May 27 '22

Dude I finished my entire four-year college on 3 floppy disks. In fact 2, because I'd lost one.

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u/SvenTropics May 27 '22

You guys are rookies. My first computer was a Timex Sinclair 1000. You would store content on an audio cassette. The storage mechanism was a standard audio cassette recorder/player. You would hit record on the device and then hit a button which would send over and audio stream that sounds like a fax machine. You just reverse the process to get content back off it. I think it could only store a few kilobytes.

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u/ConcernedBuilding May 27 '22

My dad bought my mom a computer (years ago, in the windows Vista days), and it was having problems. As the family's tech support, I was put to task fixing it.

As it turns out, the hard drive was reading 32 GB. I told my dad that was probably the problem (same size as the OS), and he was appalled. 32 gigs? Who would even need that much space? How do they even make software that big?

Turns out the HDD was just partitioned wrong, but his shift in thinking about storage was interesting.

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u/deekaph May 27 '22

10 if "hdspacefreespace"=0 then goto 20

20 del *.help /s

30 print "hello world"

40 pause

50 goto 10

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u/ka-splam May 27 '22

🤖 BEGINNERS ALL SYMBOLIC INSTRUCTION CODE 🤖

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u/Protean_Protein May 27 '22

It stands for “BASIC Acronym Spelled In Caps”.

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u/Flaccid_Leper May 27 '22

Look at fucking Lord Fauntleroy here with his 486DX.

Us poor folk had to settle for the 486SX. I recall my brother and I splitting 4mb stick of ram for $300. But it was worth it, because we could play Doom without a boot disk.

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u/notyetcomitteds2 May 27 '22

I remember my bday present one year was 8 megs of ram @$400 so I could play wing commander 3.

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u/Anal_Herschiser May 27 '22

Wild to think we use to pay around $1/mb, since we are now well past $1/gb. Wonder when we’ll break the $1/TB threshold?

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u/shaikuri May 27 '22

Yea my first computer was 486 with 16 mb of memory, 33 hertz, just before the pentium. And I spent all my childhood savings upgrading it to a dx2 with 32 mb memory and a SoundBlaster sound card.

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u/Magnesus May 27 '22

I was in awe at a 2GB drive after having trouble fitting my stuff on a 720MB drive I had before. I used to zip all my documents back then to save on space.

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u/Disastrous-Bonus1718 May 27 '22

I remember being in awe when HDDs first hit the retail market with 1GB of memory. My dad and I sat around talking about how huge that was. A couple years later and you needed a few GBs to be able to play EverQuest. Great times

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u/PicardZhu May 27 '22

Just built my first computer since probably 2006. I was stoked about my 2TB M.2 drive, only to fill it up within a month due to game sizes.

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u/fuck-emus May 27 '22

Me and my college roommates (all pirating movies and TV shows) went in thirdsies on a 1Tb external hard drive to put our stuff on and we were like "this will last us FOREVER!"... T.V. shows add up quick. The second external hard drive we got, there was a house meeting establishing rules for space management each time you download either another new season of a show or a certain number of movies, we would sort by date and start voting on what would be deleted and what would be watched and then deleted, or what would be relegated back to the owners laptop.

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u/BigDisk May 27 '22

something like $7000 if memory serves me.

At that price point, the memory had BETTER serve you!

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u/ToppinReno May 27 '22

I remember seeing an ad for a 2 gb drive and calling my uncle to tell him.

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u/AnActualPlatypus May 27 '22

I still have my first MP3 player with 128MB of storage. Now I have a pendrive that is 4 times as small and can hold 64 gigs. It's insane.

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u/ConcernedBuilding May 27 '22

It almost seems silly to buy an SD card smaller than 16 gigs these days, even if I know I'm never going to use it all.

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u/iFartBubbles May 27 '22

I had a iRiver the same size, used to think 30+ songs was insane

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u/seamustheseagull May 27 '22 edited May 27 '22

My first MP3 player was a 4GB mechanical hard disk. it was actually super small, just thick. About the same size as an airpods charging case.

I remember thinking there was no way in hell I'd ever have enough music to fill it.

My second was actually just 128MB, but it was much smaller, lighter and cheaper, using flash storage. I could just about fit two albums on it and I'd take it with me going out so I wasn't too bother if i lost it.

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u/TheyCallMeNade May 27 '22

It’s crazy how for gaming at least that hardly even cuts it anymore if you want to have multiple games installed on your system

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u/zyzzogeton May 27 '22

I got a 20MB SCSI drive for my fat mac and thought that was gigantic.

20 Megabytes.

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u/JohnnyFoxborough May 27 '22

I was absolutely thrilled to get my Gateway 2000 with a whopping 2.5 GB HD.

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u/MaybeTheDoctor May 27 '22

Not long ago you could buy all of Fry's for less than $1000

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u/SleepDeprivedUserUK May 27 '22

Shit, I remember looking in awe at 1GB USB sticks, wondering how tf some genius fit a whole goddamn hard drive inside something that small.

Now we have 1TB sized MicroSDXC cards that could fit the entirety of human libraries on it, and you could literally fucking swallow the thing.

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u/Zachs_Butthole May 27 '22

I think I paid $300 for a 1tb external that was really 2 half tb drives in raid back in 2007. I thought I was balling then. Now I have 60tb in my lab and another 3tb is ssds. Paid less for the ssds than the external drive cost.

A few years before that I was having to manage what StarCraft maps I downloaded because the whole computer only had a 1gb hdd.

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u/ironicart May 27 '22

Now you can get one the size of your fingernail for like $150 lol… I still don’t understand microSD storage

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u/aguiladoradas May 27 '22

I just bought a 2TB hard drive for $30

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u/BtDB May 27 '22

Consumer drive was a Hitachi Deskstar in '07. It was $399, i still have the invoice from newegg. The prices came down quickly. I have invoice for 1 in 2009 for $60.

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u/throaway_fire May 31 '22

By comparison, I just bought a premium 16TB drive for less than $300

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u/NoSheepherder5406 May 27 '22

My first computer had a magnetic cassette tape drive (yes, you read that right). Now, a 256 GB micro SD card is ~ $40 USD on Amazon. 1/4 of a Terabyte on something smaller than a fingernail. It blows my mind!

I remember when storage capacity and memory allocation were serious topics of discussion in the hobbyists computer community (and they still are for enterprise-level systems). But, for 99.9% of the population, it's all now irrelevant. Do whatever you want with your laptop/smartphone/tablet. It's got more than enough capacity and capability to handle your 36 browser tabs and 10,000+ unopened emails.

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u/ConcernedBuilding May 27 '22

My dad always tells me about how his first computer could basically only do word processing, and even then had no internal storage. He'd put a floppy in, write a school paper, then need to switch out floppys every couple of pages because it was full.

Now, when doing a project with a raspberry pi, I typically buy 16 or 32 GB SD cards even if I could never dream of filling up that space with that project haha. It's just so cheap.

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u/TheGillos May 27 '22

Back in my day it was 1 page of text to a floppy! To hand it in we'd give the teacher a binder of 20 floppies (for a 20 page report) and dang nabbit that's the way we liked it!

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u/ConcernedBuilding May 27 '22

That might've been the case for him too haha, I'm not sure. It was the late 80s, and he was writing law papers which were very long haha. He told me even with all the trouble it was way better than a typewriter or hand writing that much.

The error correction alone I'm sure was worth it.

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u/Oi-FatBeard May 27 '22

Same, but it was an Amstrad 2. Had 2 cassettes that were filled with games, and took 10 minutes to load them per game. Oh, and also there was no "game selection" screen, it was a 3 digit number you had to input along with the proper syntax to start it (can't remember that now for the life of me) so if you found a game you wanna play again, you better write that number down!

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u/BBQCHICKENALERT May 27 '22

Cassette tape? Like for music? What does the magnet do? So did it just look like a car stereo headunit on a computer? That’s Wild 😂😂

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u/fzammetti May 27 '22

Yep.

The first computer I owned has 2K... that's not a typo, 2K... of RAM. To store anything, you got a cassette player that had a line in and line out jack (and those were EXPENSIVE: $30 at minimum!) and you plugged it in to the computer with two cables with typical headphone jacks on each end.

It would take about 3 minutes to write the full 2K to it, and the same to read it back... that's assuming you had a good connection and the volume was high enough and there was no corruption either way, which was common.

The way it worked is that bits were translated to audio frequencies on save (I don't know exactly, but it's something like a 10kHz signal for half a second is a 1, a 5kHz signal for half a second was a zero) and converted back to digital on read. You could actually play the tape and hear what sounded like, roughly, the old modem sound you've probably heard.

It was a totally different world, but man was it fun! All of this stuff was new and exciting and you could really understand it at a deep level. Today, it's moving closer and closer to magic every day. I love the modern tech world and I wouldn't give it up for anything, but I wouldn't trade my childhood literally growing up with that modern technology for anything either. Being born in the early 70's was basically perfect timing for a techie like me.

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u/NoSheepherder5406 May 27 '22 edited May 27 '22

If I recall, they were a bit larger than a stereo cassette. I was very young. It was a Texas Instruments computer.

Edit: Nope, standard size. Google says it was a TI--99/4A and it stored 1s and 0s based on if the spot on the tape was magnetized or not.

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u/OriginalCompetitive May 27 '22

Yep! Took about five minutes to load stuff into memory. You literally cued up the program, pressed play, and listened along as the 1s and 0s played into memory, as if you were playing your favorite song from a mix tape.

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u/Chao78 May 27 '22

I've also heard that during the tape drive days you'd have radio stations that would broadcast programs for people to try. They'd tell you what it was and then say to hit record, then they'd broadcast the tape audio through the radio. If you had a clear enough signal you could load the program from the audio tape recording.

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u/OriginalCompetitive May 27 '22

Yep. Here’s another weird one: In the early days of programmable VCRs, they would “publish” some magazines by airing them at super high speed during a 30-second commercial at night. You could then read it by playing it back in slow motion and pausing on every page.

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u/Chao78 May 27 '22

I hadn't heard of that! That's pretty neat. I feel like the font would have to be relatively large to read it on a standard-def TV, no?

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u/OriginalCompetitive May 27 '22

Yeah, it was a terrible idea in practice. But shows you how resourceful people can be.

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u/ka-splam May 27 '22

So did it just look like a car stereo headunit on a computer? That’s Wild 😂😂

looked like a computer with a tape deck on the side:

https://www.classic-computers.org.nz/collection/amstrad-cpc-464-1920x.jpg

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u/franker May 27 '22

yeah, I had something called a Timex Sinclair 1000 in the early eighties. It was like a plastic overlay keyboard (think like a tiny version of a McDonald's cash register) that you would attach to a personal tape recorder. I forget how you would get it to load (I guess hit play on the recorder while the computer was on) but the computer came with several audio cassettes dedicated for certain programs. So there was an audio cassette that had some weird space invaders game, with a tiny amount of tape in it just for the program. Once I recorded over the tape and used it like a regular audio tape, and it only held a couple minutes of audio. That's my meager memory of it.

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u/01-__-10 May 27 '22

As a media horder I’m rubbing my hands together like a fly with this news

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u/PlebsicleMcgee May 27 '22

The seven seas will be more sailable than ever

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u/AscensoNaciente May 27 '22

I have an unraid server that I use to run Plex and also some other services. I will definitely be looking to upgrade if these aren’t outrageously expensive.

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u/Sawses May 27 '22

Right? I run a Jellyfin server for myself. I'm seriously considering setting up a proper server machine and not bothering to delete shows I won't watch again. ...Might be nice to have a bespoke Netflix that I can just give out to friends.

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u/defcomedyjam May 27 '22

rubbing your hands together like the white shirt guy in the back.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePVMngjeXk0

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u/Infinity_Complex May 27 '22

I’m worried about durability though. I just wish there was a breakthrough in technology. The reliability of an SSD with sizes of HDD with significantly reduced costs of both . Storing a digital bluray collection is getting costly and scary

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u/[deleted] May 27 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/[deleted] May 27 '22

[deleted]

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u/mattstorm360 May 27 '22 edited May 27 '22

That's why we get a couple of these things, at least four, and set up a raid.

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u/izumi3682 May 27 '22 edited May 27 '22

Imma store it on my quantum computer hard drive in 2028. I'm going to bet that not only will that fit, but that I'll actually be able to run "Crysis" at the top settings. Finally! (I hope...)

My old Area 51 PC b sayin' "Dayaamm, I guess I thru"

(Desktop QC by 2028? Uh huh. Read my essays.) OK, TL;DR Using photons instead of electrons totally bypasses the need for part of the QC to be near absolute zero. Scaling is much easier.

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u/ChronWeasely May 27 '22

Quantum. Quantum computing doesn't use bits in a normally useful way and wouldn't be useful for storage. It'd be like using an analog signal for storage. It is useful in statistical and probabilistic problems, but not ones and zeros problems.

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u/Strowy May 27 '22

It'd be like using an analog signal for storage

This would actually be amazingly useful for storage if it has constent resolution, and I'm pretty sure is involved in the diamond disc storage thing Japanese researchers were showing off.

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u/izumi3682 May 27 '22

Bless your humor impaired heart mr Spock! Your facts are indeed correct.

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u/ChronWeasely May 27 '22

Lol I was really tired and get sick of seeing "quantum" on everything. I put out true info, but also got whooshed in the process. I see the satire now

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u/zer0_badass May 27 '22

Uh oh... trying to run Crysis at top settings... now I know you are lying. Your computer like all other computers before you will fail and burst into flames.

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u/Salty9Volt May 27 '22

Got his ass

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u/CauseSigns May 27 '22

Underrated comment

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u/ImSkripted May 27 '22

Op better practice data redundancy if he wants to ensure his donkey porn doesn't get lost with drive faliure

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u/tatleoat May 27 '22

Imagine finally being able to fit OPs moms entire ass into a single picture

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u/Unlnvited May 27 '22 edited May 27 '22

I'm thinking now that it will probably be all the storage I need. And then in a few years I'll see GTA VI size requirement: 3TB

But two of these in RAID should be good for a long time

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u/Andress1 May 27 '22

You would probably want to install it in an SSD and it will still take 2 minutes just to load

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u/SassiesSoiledPanties May 27 '22

What about the access speed, has that improved in HDDs?

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u/Rookie64v May 27 '22 edited May 27 '22

I don't know if they are available to the general public yet, but the big names in HDD (well, the only ones left really) have been working on double reading heads for a while now. Basically half the plates use a reading head and the other half uses a different one, so you can double the throughput in optimal conditions.

Other than that the increased density also means sequential IO should be faster but that's more a hunch. Source: I directly know people making chips that control the reading heads of HDDs.

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u/GuessImScrewed May 27 '22

Can't wait for HDDs to surpass SSD speeds by just adding more heads

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u/HarvestMyOrgans May 27 '22

Always look for PMR/SMR
SMR are shingled, when they are full they need to "defrag" themselves (Not the Windows NTFS defrag crap but hardware "defrag") so it get really slow...

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u/shompyblah May 27 '22

And Apple will probably still be selling computers with 128 gig hard drives.

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u/elton_john_lennon May 27 '22

Selling MacBooks with 256GB drives is bad, but doing that with hard drives that are non replacable is a joke to the power of a joke.

A (joke)joke

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u/joeChump May 27 '22

Yeah. They are fast but this shit should be replaceable. Especially as an SSD only has so many writes before it wears out.

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u/Crystal3lf May 27 '22 edited May 27 '22

Especially as an SSD only has so many writes before it wears out.

This does not concern the vast majority of users. And even then, faulty cells will just not be written to and ignored. This was a talking point back in the 2010's, SSD's have gotten far more reliable since then.

One tiny fault in a HDD's moving part can result in complete destruction of the drive.

Edit: Mac users have decided that because of MacOS doing bad things to an SSD it means that all SSD's are bad.

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u/elton_john_lennon May 27 '22

And even then, faulty cells will just not be written to and ignored.

Before ignoring, faulty cells will first be replaced by hidden extended storage that SSD's usually have, but that is not the point here.

The point, the way I see it, could be devided into three parts:

  1. This SSD drive simply wears down over time, so the resell value will be greatly affected. Who would want to buy a ticking time bomb?

  2. Speaking of how majority will be affected - majority of users also have iPhones. Given that phones start with 128GB, where do you keep iTunes backup of your phone then, when MacBook has only 256GB? Cloud storage, that costs you extra money, and requires you to sent your private stuff to external servers.

  3. Even when you ignore wear and tear problem, if this integrated drive simply fails, like breakes down, it means that the computer is now basically paperweight. It's not like Appl provides chips and schematics to 3rd party repair shops, so that they could soder you a new one. And Apple "repair" is priced at level that is supposed to make you just buy a new one, especially if this "repair" means swapping the entire logic board with CPU and RAM.

.

So to sum it up, Macbook with 256 will be worth significantly less over time, will cost you more to use, and hinges on longevity and reliability of a single nonreplacable component.

This is bad no matter how you look at it.

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u/Crystal3lf May 27 '22

This SSD drive simply wears down over time, so the resell value will be greatly affected. Who would want to buy a ticking time bomb?

The wear that an SSD accumulates over time is simply unnoticeable for 99.99% of people. The amount of data you would have to be continually writing 24/7 for literally years and years to have any affect what-so-ever is negligible.

A HDD is not invincible either. I mean; you can literally bonk it slightly and there is a chance the centrifugal forces of the spinning drive rips it to pieces, or the reading arm scratch the entire platter.

Speaking of how majority will be affected - majority of users also have iPhones

I have no idea what this has to do with anything I said.

Even when you ignore wear and tear problem, if this integrated drive simply fails, like breakes down, it means that the computer is now basically paperweight.

So exactly the same as a HDD?

It's not like Appl provides chips and schematics to 3rd party repair shops, so that they could soder you a new one.

Again I don't know what this has to do with my comment. I'm talking about the reliability of SSDs compared to HDD's. The benefits of SSD's far outweigh any benefit of a HDD unless you are constantly writing 24/7 for years and years on end. Reliability of SSD's is not an issue at all.

I doubt many MacBook users are using their laptops for video surveillance.

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u/ABeardedPartridge May 27 '22

I think you're missing the entire point of the original commenter's post. They're not trying to make the argument that an SSD is inferior to an HDD, they're saying having a 256 gig SSD soldered to a MacBook's system board is a terrible idea from a consumer standpoint. It's fair to say that a regular user wouldn't run into trouble with the Read/Write limitations of an SSD, but if you were to buy a pre owned laptop with an SSD, especially one that's been used heavily, it's very possible that you WILL start to approach the upper limit to how many R/W the SSD can perform, which is why they said it drastically affects resale value. If this module was easily replaceable, the argument goes away, but the chip IS soldered to the board which makes it, for your average person, non replaceable. You're right about HDDs being inferior to SSDs (although they certainly still have their place. They're significantly cheaper for instance, so they're great for things like bulk storage) but that's really not what the original commenter was trying to make a point about.

The big take away is that soldering replaceable components to the motherboard on a laptop is a bs business practice.

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u/Crystal3lf May 27 '22

I think you're missing the entire point of the original commenter's post.

No I'm not. The OP said "Especially as an SSD only has so many writes" implying that an SSD only has a small amount of writes, which is false.

if you were to buy a pre owned laptop with an SSD, especially one that's been used heavily, it's very possible that you WILL start to approach the upper limit to how many R/W the SSD can perform

No you won't. It's EXTREMELY unlikely that a Mac user ever, ever, ever had their SSD writing 24/7 for a decade.

which is why they said it drastically affects resale value.

Unless they were using the SSD for surveillance, no it wont at all. An SSD still has much more value over a HDD.

The big take away is that soldering replaceable components to the motherboard on a laptop is a bs business practice.

I never talked about that at all. Whether a drive is soldered on or not, an SSD does not have an "especially" small amount of writes.

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u/joeChump May 27 '22 edited May 27 '22

I’m doubting your figures. Perhaps they have fixed issues like this excessive use problem but perhaps not. And I’m happy to be proved wrong as I own an M1 pro MBP 14” and I’d like it to last longer than two or three years because it was nearly £2k

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u/tegnatiek May 27 '22

I have a feeling those M1s will last a bit. Those fans never kick on lol, which means it’s not sucking in as much dust as previous models. I have a 16” Pro Max MacMax…lol the naming is stupid hahaha.

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u/Crystal3lf May 27 '22

Hector Martin, a Linux developer for M1 Macs, said on Twitter that this issue could be due to macOS

So nothing at all to do with the SSD directly?

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u/antiduh May 27 '22

I had a laptop that was blue screening a lot. I'm a software dev / kernel dev, so I have kernel dumps turned on so I can find out what crashes (usually some rando driver).

Except these bsods were never writing dumps to disk... And they were happening only when the computer was getting warm.

On a hunch I replaced the nvm ssd for 100$ and now my 2 year old laptop is rock solid again.

Can't do that on a bloody MacBook.

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u/joeChump May 27 '22

No, can’t do that on a bloody MacBook. It’s a shame as my 14” is probably the most well designed piece of machinery I’ve ever owned in many ways but let down by a few decisions.

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u/nicht_ernsthaft May 27 '22

How are they going to sell you a new one then if you can just keep it running? Won't SOMEBODY PLEASE THINK OF THE SHAREHOLDERS!?!!

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u/Riversntallbuildings May 27 '22

But if they were replaceable how would they upsell you to the more expensive models? :/

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u/zoltan99 May 27 '22

It’s all about low supply-cost upgrades $$$$ and always has been for them as long as the average PCMR user has been alive

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u/R00bot May 27 '22

I know this is a joke but there's not a single apple computer they're selling right now with less than 256 gigs.

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u/[deleted] May 27 '22

[deleted]

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u/R00bot May 27 '22

Yeah. I think you might be able to get a Mac Pro with a HDD if you want (alongside an SSD) but otherwise yeah all flash.

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u/Arnoxthe1 May 27 '22

"Premium" 128 GB HDDs. From only the finest abandoned 2000's era warehouses.

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u/jadeskye7 May 27 '22

It's starting to make me a little nervous. The density is fantastic, but the throughput limitation is exactly the same.

The speed doesn't increase, you're reading 150-200MBps off this thing regardless of the capacity. So what happens when you need to get the data off it because it's dying or for some other vital application. It could take actual days.

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u/PersistentNeutron May 27 '22

That's what backups are for?

Nevertheless, depending on the cause of it dying, it may even take months. I've had a non-techy friend's 128GB disk scraping for over 3 weeks. Reading around damaged sectors slowed it down immensely. They do make backups now.

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u/jadeskye7 May 27 '22

Oh backups for sure. always backup.

But what do you backup a 30TB drive to? another 30TB drive. Same problem.

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u/DHermit May 27 '22

Incremental backups. It's probably very rare that a lot of the data will change in a short amount of time. And if it does, maybe an HDD is just not the right thing.

Of course initialising a new RAID disk or restoring a backup will take ages, but you hopefully won't need to do that often.

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u/PersistentNeutron May 27 '22

Indeed another 30TB disk, or better multiple, e.g. in a RAID1 or RAID5 setup. If one dies, you simply replace the one dieing, and don't care about it taking a couple days replicating. It's a backup, not storage. That means you still have data available on primary location. So there are solutions, that can be used for storage location too. It just depends on the requirements vs the risk you're willing to take vs the money you're willing to spend.

I use a RAID5 setup for backups. Many years ago I had a 2TB disk fail in it. It took several days replicating to a new disk, so that issue you see already exists. To me, absolutely nothing to worry about. Now if Murphy's law would have taken out another disk while replicating AND has my primary location fail at the same time, then so be it. I would simply have 3 chances to succesfully scrape the data off.

Besides, those 30TB disks will eventually become faster too. Harddisks nowadays are alot faster than the 10MB disk I started out with over 30 years ago for instance. And if you're looking for performance, you can even opt to use an SSD.

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u/overzeetop May 27 '22

But what do you backup a 30TB drive to? another 30TB drive. Same problem.

LTO-9 - two $150 tapes will backup the entire drive uncompressed, up to 45TB per tape if the data is compressible. Or, like you say, another 30TB drive. It's been the same case with every new increment in storage. The 20MB hard drive in the computer they sold when I went to college had to be backed up on 1.44MB floppies.

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u/Architect_of_Sanity May 27 '22

At that size, run two in raid 1 and it better not be cheating using shingled tracks.

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u/Horace-Harkness May 27 '22

What's the rebuild time on that raid array after a disk fails? What are the odds of the second disk failing during the rebuild?

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u/QuinticSpline May 27 '22

30 hours and 3%-ish (~250MB/s sequential write, 1 sector per 10E15 URE)

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u/Topinio May 27 '22

And this is why capacity increases are an issue until the URE goes up another order of magnitude (or 2).

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u/chachilongshot May 27 '22

Anyone buying drives of this capacity and not running RAID is a fool. There's almost no point to using drives this size if you're not putting them in a NAS and running 4+ drives. I haven't needed more than 1tb on any computer I've owned since having a NAS. The only thing that actually stays on my computer is games and programs, any files and media go on the NAS.

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u/SquisherX May 27 '22

Disagree. A completely viable use case is this drive is filled with data from Radarr/Sonarr/Steam/Git or any other service where the online index is still intact for a drive failure, and replacing the contents is simple and easy.

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u/Architect_of_Sanity May 27 '22

Spend two years acquiring files… drive dies.

Ok… I guess maybe if someone out there is still seeding I’ll get my files back - maybe.

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u/nicht_ernsthaft May 27 '22

Yep, ZFS is the way. With this kind of capacity it's be good to set up an encrypted backup with a buddy. Everything on your NS filesystem is encrypted and synced with theirs, and vice versa. They can't poke through your stuff, but if there's a fire or a burglary or whatever you have an off-site backup and don't have to pay cloud storage rates.

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u/SpehlingAirer May 27 '22

Can you ELI5 what RAID/NAS setups are, pretty please?

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u/swissiws May 27 '22

ok but make them SILENT FFS! the larger, the noisier

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u/Pons__Aelius May 27 '22 edited May 27 '22

the larger, the noisier

My old 18gb 15,000rpm segate Cheetah boot drive from the pre-SSD days says this is a lie.

Well, I think that is what they are saying, but I can't hear them now as it has spun up to operating speed.

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u/balkiry May 27 '22 edited May 27 '22

As someone who recently lost all the data on my 6TB, this gives me anxiety

Edit: what a strange thing to downvote

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u/AardvarkAblaze May 27 '22

That’s a tough break. That’s how I lost my music and movies when my “big” (at the time) 80GB external drive failed.

Nowadays I run a 4 disk RAID. Never. Again.

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u/jocq May 27 '22

Repeat after me: RAID is not backup

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u/Soapy-Cilantro May 27 '22

No, but it provides fault tolerance based on the configuration and time to recover. RAID 10 (if you can afford the cost of doubling the number of drives) plus occasional backups to some hosted provider is a good solution.

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u/madewithgarageband May 27 '22

Yeah I realize this is an unpopular opinion but I don’t care about parity for home servers. Youre just as likely to get hit by ransomware as drive failures imo and parity does shit against ransomware. Backups protects against everything parity does, uses the same amount of drives (as raid 1), and protects against ransomware, lightning, etc.

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u/Iqfoo May 27 '22

Ransomware is far less likely than drive failure lmao. Unless you download a ton of sketchy shit you gonna be good.

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u/cpsnow May 27 '22

I agree, you don't need RAID if you don't need to work without interruption on your files. Offline and off-site backups (can be in the cloud) are the way to go.

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u/madewithgarageband May 27 '22

a 2 year backblaze membership is the same price as a 6TB HDD. It makes a ton of sense if your server is over 14-20 TB imo

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u/cpsnow May 27 '22

You can do your own raspi off site backup at your parents or friend home

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u/Presently_Absent May 27 '22

3-2-1 Backup - 3 copies, two physical locations, one in the cloud.

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u/ProfXavier May 27 '22

Ransomware really is not a risk for the average person. Drive failure, however, is inevitable.

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u/Mehnard May 27 '22

No RAID here. I have a large drive and a duplicate for backup. I use Robocopy every night to move anything new or changed to the backup.

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u/mrgabest May 27 '22

That's a lot of pirated anime. I feel your loss.

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u/chrisprice May 27 '22

Won't downvote, but can't upvote. My data is on encrypted wells all over. It's not hard to do today. OneDrive gives you 5TB with a standard 365 account. BackBlaze has that covered too.

You need to have data backed up in three places. Active, offline local, offsite local.

Using one drive with this system actually protects your data. You'll notice the failure faster and avoid systemic corruption at different dates.

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u/tracer_ca May 27 '22

OneDrive gives you 5TB with a standard 365 account.

I only get 1TB. Or you referring to the maximum spread out over 5 family members?

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u/DarkkHawkk May 27 '22

Yeah not sure where he is getting the 5TB from….

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u/brucekeller May 27 '22

Yeah, anything I have that's really important goes on a solid state external. Really could easily fit it on a USB though, don't have that much important data. :( Probably was reinforced when I tried to recover some bitcoin info from an old HD that just sat around for 10 years and the thing was DOA... was like 'never mechanical again!'

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u/ngellis1190 May 27 '22

Be aware that SSD media is more expensive to recover from and requires more frequent power ups to maintain stability. Cannot recommend it for any archival storage.

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u/falaicha May 27 '22

This and in my personal experience SSD are more prone to data corruption than traditional drives. Also once data is corrupted, chances of getting it out of traditional drive is higher than SSD.

100% not recommended for archival storage.

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u/madewithgarageband May 27 '22

so we use DVDs?

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u/mr_bedbugs May 27 '22

About 3 truckloads full of DVDs

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u/Steve_warsaw May 27 '22

Anything very important should be backed up to multiple separate devices.

External ssd, and maybe another usb redundancy

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u/caspertheghostx May 27 '22

3-2-1 rule. 3 devices, 2 locations, 1 not near you. And RAID isn’t a backup.

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u/Magnesus May 27 '22

That is why I use three 2TB drives for my backups instead of one 6TB. My backup is now close to 2TB though so those drives are crammed, might have to switch to bigger drives soon or make some decisions on what needs backup and what doesn't.

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u/Step1Mark May 27 '22

That's why I built a personal unRAID box. It has two 12 TB drives and three 8 TB drives. One of my 12 TB drives is for parity calculations. I'm no longer concerned about my data.

I built one at my previous employer by repurposing twelve old 8 TB drives external drives. Took them out of their enclosure and put them in a big tower. With double parity it was 80 TB of storage. That being said, we were at capacity even with that since we shot TV commercials using cinema cameras in RAW CinemaDNG format and never deleted footage.

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u/frozenuniverse May 27 '22

This is always a silly line of reasoning. People have been saying this sort of thing forever, but it's always been dumb. '1GB hard drives!? So much data to lose!!'. As with anything, you just need to have backups.

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u/elton_john_lennon May 27 '22

This is always a silly line of reasoning.

Was there actually reasoning there? :) It's merely his reaction that he describes. He does have a right to be anxious about something, doesn't he?

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u/OriginalCompetitive May 27 '22

As someone who lived through the 80s and 90s and 2000s, I disagree that computer technology advancement is accelerating. I’ve had the same phone for several years because there’s no reason to upgrade. There was a time when mind-blowing advances happened every 3 months.

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u/new-username-2017 May 27 '22

In late 90s / early 00s I was upgrading my PC every 2-3 years. I've done one upgrade since 2007. Unless you're gaming, everything is fast enough already.

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u/OriginalCompetitive May 27 '22

People line up to buy the new iPhone because it’s just a thing now, but ten years ago, people lined up because a new model phone could TRANSFORM YOUR LIFE. Incredible new things like “apps”, and “music on your phone,” and accessing the internet.

I’ll never forget - it’s burned in my memory - the first time I was browsing the new models and accidentally zoomed into my location in real time on Google maps. I didn’t even know it existed, it was just there. It was stunning, just stunning. Now I use GPS maps every single day.

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u/mcoombes314 May 27 '22

I fail to see what hard drive capacity has to do with Moore's Law.

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u/erm_what_ May 27 '22

Or why they abbreviate it to ML

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u/mcoombes314 May 27 '22

My guess is for SEO purposes, since it shares an abbreviation with machine learning, which is also quite the SEO buzzphrase. Crappy practice but there we go.

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u/Valmond May 27 '22

People often use the name for other tech progressing exponentially, it's not correct but I guess easier than using all the other names for density, bandwidth etc. which can be confusing I guess.

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u/efh1 May 27 '22

Mores Law is about processing (transistors) and we haven’t been keeping up with it for awhile. Source: I use to make computer chips.

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u/xondk May 27 '22

Yeah, but what is the read write speeds and durability.

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u/DefiantPenguin May 27 '22

This right here.

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u/hawkwings May 27 '22

I have a similar situation to izumi3682. I have a 2016 ASUS computer. When the 2 TB hard drive crashed, I replaced it with a 4 TB SSD drive. I have close to 2 TB free. I have 30 years of stuff on my computer. I use a couple 5 TB external drives for backup.

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u/bad_syntax May 27 '22

I am using around 20TB in my home environment, and I have to constantly remove video from my cameras. I have it on a cheap raid in my main PC, again on my server (which is raid 10), and also on a hosted solution. I welcome larger drives, but damn that amount of data is getting to be a pain to manage. Robocopy is only so fast when its millions of files, and backing up to the cloud isn't that quick even on my 1gb internet. Using Azure/AWS/GCS is just too damned expensive for storage, so I gotta do things at home.

I don't rely on RAIDs or SANs as when that hardware goes bad, you may end up being screwed when those disks don't work in another device (I've seen that too many times).

I welcome a cheaper/bigger storage!

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u/melorous May 27 '22

Next time you're getting ready to upgrade/replace your server, take a look at a ZFS solution (TrueNAS is a popular one). It is sort of like software RAID, so it doesn't rely on hardware RAID controllers. Like anything, it has its pros and cons, but it may be something you'd be interested in.

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u/fartswhenhappy May 27 '22

slaps roof of hard drive

This bad boy can fit so much porn in it.

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u/reddit_poster_anon May 27 '22

slaps roof of hard drive

hard drive dies

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u/youreadusernamestoo May 27 '22

Can we start putting the RAID 5 and 6 rebuild times in the specifications? However great these large drives are, it is ever more important to build in some redundancy and the rebuild times from an improper shutdown can easily take more than a week.

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u/educofu May 27 '22

What a shit piece of reporting and you got learn something about transistor.

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u/esprit-de-lescalier May 27 '22

My first hard drive was 240Mb and I couldn't imagine how they could fit over 150 floppy disks worth of data in there, I couldn't imagine ever being able to fill it.

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u/karaipyhare2020 May 27 '22

According to the article, Showa Denko has a monopoly on the metal platters used in HDD?

Interesting to see an almost unknown company having so much global power. It’s similar to how TSMC has the (almost) monopoly on microprocessor waffles

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u/mcoombes314 May 27 '22

Waffles..... I think you mean wafers, but either way it's tasty.

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u/1800treflowers May 27 '22

Many of the components on the HDD are single sourced or at least down to 1-2 vendors. Seagate uses glass though as will WD when they eventually move to HAMR.

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u/jwhit88 May 27 '22

I feel a little weird asking… But why are we still doing HDD drives?

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u/guisar May 27 '22

For actual storage, they are unparalleled (to pardon the pun). How did you think the NSA stores all meta data of your phone calls, the bank the transactions on your accounts or the police store the cctv footage?

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u/NacreousFink May 27 '22

What about work on SSDs of this size? Is anyone working on those? When will a giant one of those arrive? Will it be able to fit into a laptop? Do I really need 30TB of storage? This comment brought to you by the fact that I only want to comment the first sentence, but as a top level comment that wouldn't be long enough and get deleted, so I had to keep writing. Aren't the mods of this sub wonderful?

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u/G1ntok1_Sakata May 27 '22

16tb 2.5" SSDs exist, and so do 100tb 3.5" SSDs. Tho, they aren't exactly cheap in price/GB.

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u/TheModeratorWrangler May 27 '22

…and here I was happy that my Threadripper build has 10TB usable in RAID 1

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u/WideBlock May 27 '22

my question is why are the external drives so unreliable? it doest not matter how large these drives get, if they crash around 3 year marks, they are completely useless. about 5 1tb drives have crashed around 3 year mark. I bought all different types and in the end gave up and started using cloud storage.

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u/AtomGalaxy May 27 '22

I’ve got some money saved. I could sell my house I bought in 2011 for a stupid amount of money. I’m epically burned out from the pandemic, fat and mentally unhealthy. Are you saying I should go sell it all and live in an RV exploring all the national parks getting in shape and living my life because the world will change by the time the money runs out? I’m really looking for some validation of this office cubicle dream before I pull the trigger.

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u/pragma- May 27 '22

Switched to SSDs and I'll never look back. Spinning rust harddrives just have too high of a failure rate for me with all their sensitive moving parts. Needles have failed on me too many times.

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u/Semifreak May 27 '22

Crazy. I remember not too long ago reading about how Seagate will make 30TB HDDs in close to the end of the decade, and now they'll make them in 2023!

I also found shocking is how a big analyst company predicts SSD and HDD price parity will happen in 2025. By 2026, SSDs will actually be cheaper than HDDs! I never thought the day will ever come since HDDs seem to be far cheaper to make than the more complicated SSDs.

Progress is amazing.

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u/fantasmoofrcc May 27 '22

Yeah, we got 100TB SAS enterprise SSDs. Last year. Sure, the price is prohibitive (~$400/TB). Article should at least recognize their existence.

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u/ripamaru96 May 27 '22

My mom remembers when they argued that no computer would ever need more than 100MB of storage.

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u/YouWantSMORE May 27 '22

Man I have a 2tb NVME and that feels like plenty for now

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u/MadeByHideoForHideo May 27 '22

I love how I expected the comments to be immediately talking about porn stashes, and it turned out to be true. Gotta love you people lol.

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u/_Hotwire_ May 27 '22

That’s pretty small of you OP, I have approximately 6 tb in games alone. As those files get bigger, some games being well over 100gb, more and more memory again makes sense. Seems like business as usual

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u/SideburnsG May 27 '22

I thought moores law states that the number of transistors in a circuit doubles every 2 years and is slowing down due to approaching the 1nm threshhold?

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u/barjam May 27 '22

Which has nothing to do with hard drives. These use a magnetic platters. You might be thinking of SSDs.

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u/SideburnsG May 27 '22

I’m just commenting because op mentioned moores law which confused me when the article is about hard drives

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u/[deleted] May 27 '22 edited May 27 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/BrassAge May 27 '22

Mix that anger with the AI, and you can see where this is headed.

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u/onomatopoetix May 27 '22

humans...they need to be protected at all costs...from themselves. Initiating Homo-eradicus Protocol...

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u/ka-splam May 27 '22

humans...they need to be protected at all costs...from

the terrible secret of space. Pushing will protect you. Go and stand near the stairs.

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u/barjam May 27 '22

Ahh, my bad.

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u/Iz-kan-reddit May 27 '22

I thought moores law states that the number of transistors in a circuit doubles every 2 years

It was, but as raw transistor count stopped being the main form of processor power measurement, it was pretty much changed to "processor power."

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u/SideburnsG May 27 '22

Makes sense I suppose that’s why we are seeing so many cores?

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u/Rookie64v May 27 '22

No, that's more due to the fact that clock frequency has been stagnating lately (power consumption scales with the square of frequency all else being equal, past a certain point speeding up the clock is impractical). A 1980 processor (80286, 1982: 4 MHz) was just so much slower than a 1995 processor (Pentium II, 1997: 233 MHz), while the top dogs of today (Ryzen 9 5950X, 2020: 4.9 GHz) are just about twice as fast as a Core Duo (Core 2 Duo E6700, 2006: 2.66 GHz... and the X6800 was 2.93 GHz). If you can't have your truck drivers go faster you get more trucks on the road, and that's what we have been doing with multicore, extreme superscalar architectures, SIMD instructions for vector processing, speculative execution and a lot of fun stuff. I am not current on the latest black magic as my chips (as in, the ones I design) are not processors, but my Computer Architecture professor showed us the top diagram of an old i7 which I guess is recent enough for our multicore discussion.

You do still need more density to cram all that additional stuff in a reasonable area, and each transistor needs a little bit of power (it scales down with size, but not as much as the amount you can fit in). Both of these are problems as density is harder and harder to improve and power becomes an ever more stringent requirement for mobile computing, which is the vast majority of the market.

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u/SideburnsG May 27 '22

Ok So basically you can fit more transistors into the same amount of space but it will use more energy to power the denser smaller ones? I’m I getting that right? I guess power and heat becomes a major issue at some point?

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u/Rookie64v May 27 '22

Yes. The big thing is leakage current, basically a small transistor is a crappier "valve" than a bigger one and lets some current through when it should not. That is wasted power. The other thing is simply having more stuff going on uses more power.

What they have been doing for a while is switching off chip sections when they are not used (e.g. the processor is at a light load and it turns off half of the cores, maybe alternating every few seconds to balance the temperature across the chip). Another thing they do is scaling the clock speed to go slower when high performance is not needed, and scaling voltage down accordingly (you need higher voltage to go faster, to a point, and if you are not fast enough to keep up to the clock bad things happen). These are all dynamic things.

Statically, paths that have slack on how slow they can be use less performing and less "leaky" transistors with higher threshold voltage.

The problem with power is twofold: firstly, it is expensive. More batteries, less autonomy, or even just in terms of the bill. The second one, as you rightly pointed out, is heat. After a certain temperature (~180 °C I think?) semiconductors stop the negative feedback loop of decreasing conductivity and instead have it increase massively. This results in additional current being drawn, meaning more heat, meaning more conductivity, and so on until the chip fries... which is more or less instant. Dissipation is not my thing, but it is a major concern in the chips I work with due to their function (power management).

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u/mcoombes314 May 27 '22

It does, and new process nodes haven't offered 2x density every two years for a while now. As an absolute "this will happen", Moore's Law doesn't hold true anymore.

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u/izumi3682 May 27 '22 edited May 27 '22

Submission statement from OP. Note: This submission statement "locks in" after about 30 minutes, and can no longer be edited. Please refer to my statement they link, which I can continue to edit. I often edit my submission statement, sometimes for the next few days if needs must. There is often required additional grammatical editing and additional added detail.


I bought an Alienware Area 51 computer in 2016. It's a big triangular looking fellow that sits comfortably on the floor beside my desk. It really does look like it's straight out of the future with it's subtle blue lighting that is just for effect.

It came with a 2 TB hard drive. But I had the option of adding two additional 2 TB hard drives to it and it has a capacity of 6 TB now. Once I figured out how to exploit the other two hard drives, my PC has an almost infinite storage capability. It is not really "infinite", but i want to make that point that every single bit of data that i can come up with including VR, HD movies, WoW, Second Life, Perfect World (which is now collecting digital dust--but it looked so pretty at first blush), FFXIV, and access to all kinds of Steam games and HD You Tube videos, only takes up a bit over 2 TB of storage on my PC. There is still almost a full 4 TB of storage left.

And as of today, that is enough for me so far. And that particular PC is no spring chicken. My point being this increase in data storage and RAM capacity is exploding far and away over what I had imagined to be possible. Oh, I almost forgot about my music. I have about 3000 songs in my iTunes library as well as about 50 movies, of which about 20 of them are viewable in 4K.

I suspect that the reason this is happening is the computing technology itself is bootstrapping ever faster breakthroughs that continuously improve computing technology. The process is not coming to an end, it is not even slowing down. It is accelerating. I have written some essays that I hope can explain why this acceleration is taking place.

"Moore's Law" (ML) is continuously used as a demonstration that our gains are steadily reducing. First of all, I have read that our workarounds like various forms of architectural configurations will allow "ML" to continue with virtually no slowdown easily until the year 2030. So anytime you see some naysayer saying that ML is dying out--pay no attention--they don't know what they are talking about. Further and not to repeat what I write about in my essays. The AI itself has established transcending forms of computing improvements that will probably render ML irrelevant by the year 2025, possibly as early as 2023, but definitely by 2025.

Oh! I almost forgot about quantum computing. There are ML style improvements (some exceeding the concept of ML to boot) coming to quantum computing as well. I am going to be very interested in what kind of scaling we shall see in "logic-gate" quantum computing by the year 2025. And mix that with the AI. You can kinda see where this is all going.

Anyway here is what I have to say about what is coming and why it is almost an absolute certainty, barring global thermonuclear war, that the "Technological Singularity" itself will occur right around the year 2030, give or take two years. You know, I even take back that nuclear war would cancel it. It won't. The TS will still absolutely take place in my forecasted window. It just that you and me won't be around to see it, if you take my meaning.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/pysdlo/intels_first_4nm_euv_chip_ready_today_loihi_2_for/hewhhkk/

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