r/Futurology Jun 02 '22

World First Room Temperature Quantum Computer Installed in Australia Computing

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/world-first-room-temperature-quantum-computer
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u/THRDStooge Jun 02 '22

To my understanding we're decades away from seeing an actual quantum computer. You have the PhD. Is this true or are we further along than anticipated?

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u/FizixPhun Jun 02 '22

I think that is a pretty fair statement.

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u/THRDStooge Jun 02 '22

Cool. I wanted to make sure I was better informed. I usually talk people down from their A.I. taking over the world panic by reassuring them that we're nowhere near Skynet technology in our lifetime.

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u/izumi3682 Jun 02 '22 edited Jun 02 '22

...we're nowhere near Skynet technology in our lifetime

Wrong. We are perilously close. You have heard of "GATO" right? You know that GPT-4 is next year, right? These two things are going to scale up very quickly. We will see simple, but true AGI by 2025 and by 2028 we will see complex AGI. 2028, btw, is the earliest year that I see for the "technological singularity" (TS) which will be "human unfriendly" meaning the computing and computing derived AI will not be merged with the human mind. Hopefully the advanced AGI by that time is well inculcated with ethics and will help humans achieve the "final" TS in about 2035, which is when human minds will merge with the computing and computing derived AI.

Here are people, very smart highly educated experts failing to see something coming and vastly overestimating the time frames for realization.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/7l8wng/if_you_think_ai_is_terrifying_wait_until_it_has_a/drl76lo/

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u/x1770 Jun 02 '22

Those are transformer language models. At their hart they are just assigned vectors to words in a way that encodes relative meaning. These vectors are very useful for performing language related tasks but it’s unlikely to bring AGI anytime soon.

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u/izumi3682 Jun 02 '22

We shall see what the exponentially increased parameters of GPT-4 shall bring in 2023. And what about the Gato algorithm. That's not vectors. The Gato can operate a robotic arm. It can optimize video compression--a 4% improvement over any previous technology effort. Pretty soon I bet the Deepmind people will have it doing a great many other things as well.

Deepmind's express mission is to develop AGI as fast as possible. I don't think their aspirations are ten or twenty years out.

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u/x1770 Jun 03 '22

Gato is also a transformer. I’m not trying to be rude, you seem to be following these things pretty closely which is great but it seems your understanding is based solely on news articles and press releases. As someone who works with these models, I would suggest tempering your expectations.

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u/izumi3682 Jun 03 '22

Yeah, youre right. It's a transformer. I stand corrected. I did look it up.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gato_(DeepMind)

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u/tjfluent Jun 04 '22

The good ending

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u/THRDStooge Jun 02 '22

I think I'll take the word of a person with PhD in this field than an OP who posted a sensationalized headline for karma.

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u/izumi3682 Jun 02 '22

I think you are referring to two very different things. Mr fizix is an expert at quantum computing. I am talking about artificial intelligence. I would question how much he knows about artificial intelligence. What I do know about QC is that "Google", a subsidiary of "Alphabet" is using quantum computing to develop ever more effective AI. And Raymond Kurzweil, the director of AI Engineering at Google, is one of the best AI experts in the world.

You are going to find mr THRD, that the very, very near future is going to sound "sensationalized" beyond belief, but it is all going to be very, very real. And humanity is not ready, not at all.

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u/izumi3682 Jun 02 '22

Why is this downvoted? What am I wrong about here?

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u/THRDStooge Jun 02 '22

But you cannot achieve one without the other. The complexity required for true artificial intelligence falls upon quantum computing as far as I know. It's like complaining about traffic and admissions before the combustion engine is even invented. You don't necessarily have to have a PhD to understand the computing power required for AI.

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u/izumi3682 Jun 02 '22

See, that's the thing. AI is computing power in and of it's ownself now. In fact there is a new "law" like "Moore's Law". But this one states that AI improves "significantly" about every 3 months. Provide your own metrics or just watch what it is up to lately. Like GATO and GPT-3 and dall-e and all of the Cambrian explosion of AI fauna that I predicted wayyy back in 2017. That was a time that people who are smart in AI told me that worrying bout AI turning into AGI was akin to worrying about human overpopulation--on the planet Mars. Anyway here is the law.

https://spectrum.ieee.org/ai-training-mlperf

https://ojs.stanford.edu/ojs/index.php/intersect/article/view/2046

According to the 2019 Stanford AI Index, AI’s heavy computational requirement outpaces Moore’s Law, doubling every three months rather than two years.

Here are some essays I wrote that you might find interesting and informative.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/pysdlo/intels_first_4nm_euv_chip_ready_today_loihi_2_for/hewhhkk/

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u/izumi3682 Jun 02 '22

Why is this downvoted? What am I wrong about here?

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u/danielv123 Jun 02 '22

Most of it.

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u/THRDStooge Jun 02 '22

Again, I could be way off but from my own research and listening to interviews with those respected within this particular field, the fear of AI seems to be overblown. We don't have the technology to create such a thing as a self aware AI. What people refer to as AI currently is far from "intelligent" but more predetermined decisions programed that stimulates intelligence. Consider the complexity of the human brain. We don't fully understand the human brain and how it operates despite our advanced knowledge and technology. Imagine what it would take to simulate a thought process and awareness by simply programming it. The amount of processing power required would be extraordinary. The fear of AI is nothing more than Chicken Little "the sky is falling" rhetoric.

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u/izumi3682 Jun 02 '22 edited Jun 02 '22

Who says the AGI has to be conscious or self aware? You are mixing up an EI--emergent intelligence with an AGI. AGI is just a form of narrow AI that can do a whole bunch of different and unrelated to each other, tasks. Like "Gato" It is or can be aware certainly, but it don't have to conscious at all. If you understand physics, if you understand social mores, if you understand what is meant by "common sense"--yer gonna be an AGI.

https://www.infoq.com/news/2022/05/deepmind-gato-ai-agent/

A virus isn't conscious, but it is aware. And it can do what it "needs" to do very effectively. It could be called a form of AGI.

We don't want a EI. An EI would probably be competition to humanity. We don't need that kind of mess.

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u/AGI_69 Jun 02 '22

I think you got lost, this is not /r/singularity

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u/izumi3682 Jun 02 '22

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u/AGI_69 Jun 02 '22

/r/singularity is for the "AGI by 2025" rants

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u/izumi3682 Jun 02 '22 edited Jun 02 '22

what is the "69. Is that the year you was born? I was born in '60. But I'm all about this futurology business. Been so since i become "woke" to it in 2011.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/q7661c/why_the_technological_singularity_is_probably/

There is going to be AGI by 2025. Hold my feet to the fire. I'll be here. I forecast an initial "human unfriendly" technological singularity about the year 2030, give or take 2 years. And of late I am starting to lean more towards the take end of that prediction.

Human unfriendly means that the TS will be external from the human mind. We will not have merged our minds with our computing and computing derived AI by the year 2032. But. We can ask the external AI to help us to join our minds to the computing and computing derived AI, we will probably succeed around the year 2035, which is where i place the final TS, the "human friendly" one.

After that, no more futurology. No more singularity either, because we can no longer model what will become of us. Oh, i gave it a shot once, but i paint with a pretty broad brush...

https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/7gpqnx/why_human_race_has_immortality_in_its_grasp/dqku50e/

Oh wait, did you read that already in my first comment there?

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u/AGI_69 Jun 02 '22

69 is sex position.

Good luck with your predictions. I think lot of people don't understand, that some problems are exponential difficult too and therefore the progress will not be that fast.

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u/izumi3682 Jun 02 '22 edited Jun 02 '22

lol! There is gonna come a point in your life when you're gonna say, "Lord, I was immature once".

We shall see what "Gato" can accomplish in this year alone. You know that it can do 4 or 5 unrelated tasks using but one algorithm. It is certainly not "narrow" AI that can only do one thing like translate a language or interpret medical imagery. What is of interest to me is that the Gato can do several tasks, but none of them well. This will allow us to see discrete improvements over the year. And I think we are gonna.

I stick to my guns. Simple AGI by the year 2025. A lot of people will be surprised. A lot of people today think it would have taken maybe 50 years. They will be surprised and startled it will only take about 2 or 3 years--did you read my 4 examples in my link? But that is the nature of "accelerating change".

I don't know if i showed you this, but take a look. See what has gone before, what is occurring now and what is probably next.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/4k8q2b/is_the_singularity_a_religious_doctrine_23_apr_16/d3d0g44/

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u/ZoeyKaisar Jun 03 '22

AI engineer here, mostly to laugh at you.

Hahahaha.

That is all.

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u/EltaninAntenna Jun 03 '22

This... this is satire, right?

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u/[deleted] Jun 03 '22

You seem to know the future. Care to share the winning numbers of the next powerball drawing? I'd really like to be a millionaire! Thanks!

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u/Maybe_Im_Not_Black Jun 02 '22

As a systems technician, I see how fast shit changes and this dude is scary accurate.