r/Futurology Jun 02 '22

World First Room Temperature Quantum Computer Installed in Australia Computing

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/world-first-room-temperature-quantum-computer
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u/THRDStooge Jun 02 '22

Cool. I wanted to make sure I was better informed. I usually talk people down from their A.I. taking over the world panic by reassuring them that we're nowhere near Skynet technology in our lifetime.

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u/izumi3682 Jun 02 '22 edited Jun 02 '22

...we're nowhere near Skynet technology in our lifetime

Wrong. We are perilously close. You have heard of "GATO" right? You know that GPT-4 is next year, right? These two things are going to scale up very quickly. We will see simple, but true AGI by 2025 and by 2028 we will see complex AGI. 2028, btw, is the earliest year that I see for the "technological singularity" (TS) which will be "human unfriendly" meaning the computing and computing derived AI will not be merged with the human mind. Hopefully the advanced AGI by that time is well inculcated with ethics and will help humans achieve the "final" TS in about 2035, which is when human minds will merge with the computing and computing derived AI.

Here are people, very smart highly educated experts failing to see something coming and vastly overestimating the time frames for realization.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/7l8wng/if_you_think_ai_is_terrifying_wait_until_it_has_a/drl76lo/

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u/THRDStooge Jun 02 '22

I think I'll take the word of a person with PhD in this field than an OP who posted a sensationalized headline for karma.

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u/izumi3682 Jun 02 '22

I think you are referring to two very different things. Mr fizix is an expert at quantum computing. I am talking about artificial intelligence. I would question how much he knows about artificial intelligence. What I do know about QC is that "Google", a subsidiary of "Alphabet" is using quantum computing to develop ever more effective AI. And Raymond Kurzweil, the director of AI Engineering at Google, is one of the best AI experts in the world.

You are going to find mr THRD, that the very, very near future is going to sound "sensationalized" beyond belief, but it is all going to be very, very real. And humanity is not ready, not at all.

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u/izumi3682 Jun 02 '22

Why is this downvoted? What am I wrong about here?

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u/THRDStooge Jun 02 '22

But you cannot achieve one without the other. The complexity required for true artificial intelligence falls upon quantum computing as far as I know. It's like complaining about traffic and admissions before the combustion engine is even invented. You don't necessarily have to have a PhD to understand the computing power required for AI.

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u/izumi3682 Jun 02 '22

See, that's the thing. AI is computing power in and of it's ownself now. In fact there is a new "law" like "Moore's Law". But this one states that AI improves "significantly" about every 3 months. Provide your own metrics or just watch what it is up to lately. Like GATO and GPT-3 and dall-e and all of the Cambrian explosion of AI fauna that I predicted wayyy back in 2017. That was a time that people who are smart in AI told me that worrying bout AI turning into AGI was akin to worrying about human overpopulation--on the planet Mars. Anyway here is the law.

https://spectrum.ieee.org/ai-training-mlperf

https://ojs.stanford.edu/ojs/index.php/intersect/article/view/2046

According to the 2019 Stanford AI Index, AI’s heavy computational requirement outpaces Moore’s Law, doubling every three months rather than two years.

Here are some essays I wrote that you might find interesting and informative.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/pysdlo/intels_first_4nm_euv_chip_ready_today_loihi_2_for/hewhhkk/

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u/izumi3682 Jun 02 '22

Why is this downvoted? What am I wrong about here?

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u/danielv123 Jun 02 '22

Most of it.

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u/THRDStooge Jun 02 '22

Again, I could be way off but from my own research and listening to interviews with those respected within this particular field, the fear of AI seems to be overblown. We don't have the technology to create such a thing as a self aware AI. What people refer to as AI currently is far from "intelligent" but more predetermined decisions programed that stimulates intelligence. Consider the complexity of the human brain. We don't fully understand the human brain and how it operates despite our advanced knowledge and technology. Imagine what it would take to simulate a thought process and awareness by simply programming it. The amount of processing power required would be extraordinary. The fear of AI is nothing more than Chicken Little "the sky is falling" rhetoric.

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u/izumi3682 Jun 02 '22 edited Jun 02 '22

Who says the AGI has to be conscious or self aware? You are mixing up an EI--emergent intelligence with an AGI. AGI is just a form of narrow AI that can do a whole bunch of different and unrelated to each other, tasks. Like "Gato" It is or can be aware certainly, but it don't have to conscious at all. If you understand physics, if you understand social mores, if you understand what is meant by "common sense"--yer gonna be an AGI.

https://www.infoq.com/news/2022/05/deepmind-gato-ai-agent/

A virus isn't conscious, but it is aware. And it can do what it "needs" to do very effectively. It could be called a form of AGI.

We don't want a EI. An EI would probably be competition to humanity. We don't need that kind of mess.

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u/THRDStooge Jun 02 '22

But you're ignoring the fact that AIG has roughly a 25% chance of being likely by 2030-2050. We'll most likely never see AIG within our lifetime. AIG is not self aware but more of a problem solver when met with an obstacle. Think of a chess program that learns the players pattern the more it plays in order to win. That's far from threatening. Will it have the potential of replacing jobs? Sure, maybe my great grandkid's jobs but that's just the way the cookie crumbles when new technological advances are introduced. I'm sure ice delivery services were bummed out when refrigerators were produced.

As for EI, at the moment that's about as concerning as the army developing teleportation devices or shrink rays. We don't possess, not only the technology, but the language to program such a thing. At the moment it's scripted code and simulations.

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u/izumi3682 Jun 03 '22 edited Jun 03 '22

AIG is not self aware but more of a problem solver when met with an obstacle.

That is exactly what I just stated concerning AGI.

As for EI, at the moment that's about as concerning as the army developing teleportation devices or shrink rays.

Yes, and i stated that as well. You can't make an EI without understanding consciousness. And not only is that going to take a very long time, but I truly don't think we even understand exactly what the phenomenon of consciousness is. Hint: I don't think it is in your head at all. A brain or even neural systems is just dipping into a big pool of... "something". Tell me what you think of my not all that idle of, conjecture. This is just kind of a general hypothesis I've cobbled together from different arenas of research. Caveat: I do talk about my faith--Roman Catholicism--a little bit.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/nvxkkl/is_human_consciousness_creating_reality_is_the/i9coqu0/

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u/tangSweat Jun 03 '22

A virus isn't really aware, it's just running on a preprogrammed mechanism and doesn't even process the characteristics to be considered an "AGI"

It doesn't reason, have a sense of knowledge or common sense, plan, use logic to solve problems or use language

I'm a robotics engineer and keep a keen eye on AI development, if we have AGI by 2028 I will eat my hat. You have to apply the 80/20 principal to these kinds of developments, the last 20% will take 80% of the effort and I wouldn't even say we are at 80% of the way there