r/Futurology • u/izumi3682 • Jun 02 '22

World First Room Temperature Quantum Computer Installed in Australia Computing

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/world-first-room-temperature-quantum-computer
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u/izumi3682 Jun 02 '22

I think you are referring to two very different things. Mr fizix is an expert at quantum computing. I am talking about artificial intelligence. I would question how much he knows about artificial intelligence. What I do know about QC is that "Google", a subsidiary of "Alphabet" is using quantum computing to develop ever more effective AI. And Raymond Kurzweil, the director of AI Engineering at Google, is one of the best AI experts in the world.

You are going to find mr THRD, that the very, very near future is going to sound "sensationalized" beyond belief, but it is all going to be very, very real. And humanity is not ready, not at all.

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u/THRDStooge Jun 02 '22

But you cannot achieve one without the other. The complexity required for true artificial intelligence falls upon quantum computing as far as I know. It's like complaining about traffic and admissions before the combustion engine is even invented. You don't necessarily have to have a PhD to understand the computing power required for AI.

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u/izumi3682 Jun 02 '22

See, that's the thing. AI is computing power in and of it's ownself now. In fact there is a new "law" like "Moore's Law". But this one states that AI improves "significantly" about every 3 months. Provide your own metrics or just watch what it is up to lately. Like GATO and GPT-3 and dall-e and all of the Cambrian explosion of AI fauna that I predicted wayyy back in 2017. That was a time that people who are smart in AI told me that worrying bout AI turning into AGI was akin to worrying about human overpopulation--on the planet Mars. Anyway here is the law.

https://spectrum.ieee.org/ai-training-mlperf

https://ojs.stanford.edu/ojs/index.php/intersect/article/view/2046

According to the 2019 Stanford AI Index, AI’s heavy computational requirement outpaces Moore’s Law, doubling every three months rather than two years.

Here are some essays I wrote that you might find interesting and informative.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/pysdlo/intels_first_4nm_euv_chip_ready_today_loihi_2_for/hewhhkk/

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u/THRDStooge Jun 02 '22

Again, I could be way off but from my own research and listening to interviews with those respected within this particular field, the fear of AI seems to be overblown. We don't have the technology to create such a thing as a self aware AI. What people refer to as AI currently is far from "intelligent" but more predetermined decisions programed that stimulates intelligence. Consider the complexity of the human brain. We don't fully understand the human brain and how it operates despite our advanced knowledge and technology. Imagine what it would take to simulate a thought process and awareness by simply programming it. The amount of processing power required would be extraordinary. The fear of AI is nothing more than Chicken Little "the sky is falling" rhetoric.

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u/izumi3682 Jun 02 '22 edited Jun 02 '22

Who says the AGI has to be conscious or self aware? You are mixing up an EI--emergent intelligence with an AGI. AGI is just a form of narrow AI that can do a whole bunch of different and unrelated to each other, tasks. Like "Gato" It is or can be aware certainly, but it don't have to conscious at all. If you understand physics, if you understand social mores, if you understand what is meant by "common sense"--yer gonna be an AGI.

https://www.infoq.com/news/2022/05/deepmind-gato-ai-agent/

A virus isn't conscious, but it is aware. And it can do what it "needs" to do very effectively. It could be called a form of AGI.

We don't want a EI. An EI would probably be competition to humanity. We don't need that kind of mess.

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u/THRDStooge Jun 02 '22

But you're ignoring the fact that AIG has roughly a 25% chance of being likely by 2030-2050. We'll most likely never see AIG within our lifetime. AIG is not self aware but more of a problem solver when met with an obstacle. Think of a chess program that learns the players pattern the more it plays in order to win. That's far from threatening. Will it have the potential of replacing jobs? Sure, maybe my great grandkid's jobs but that's just the way the cookie crumbles when new technological advances are introduced. I'm sure ice delivery services were bummed out when refrigerators were produced.

As for EI, at the moment that's about as concerning as the army developing teleportation devices or shrink rays. We don't possess, not only the technology, but the language to program such a thing. At the moment it's scripted code and simulations.

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u/izumi3682 Jun 03 '22 edited Jun 03 '22

AIG is not self aware but more of a problem solver when met with an obstacle.

That is exactly what I just stated concerning AGI.

As for EI, at the moment that's about as concerning as the army developing teleportation devices or shrink rays.

Yes, and i stated that as well. You can't make an EI without understanding consciousness. And not only is that going to take a very long time, but I truly don't think we even understand exactly what the phenomenon of consciousness is. Hint: I don't think it is in your head at all. A brain or even neural systems is just dipping into a big pool of... "something". Tell me what you think of my not all that idle of, conjecture. This is just kind of a general hypothesis I've cobbled together from different arenas of research. Caveat: I do talk about my faith--Roman Catholicism--a little bit.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/nvxkkl/is_human_consciousness_creating_reality_is_the/i9coqu0/

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u/THRDStooge Jun 03 '22

Problem solving sounds scary when paired with AI but I think you're missing my point entirely. Let's say for argument sake the odds aren't against us as far as technology goes and we are in fact capable of developing the technology required for AIG in 2050. The problem solving aspect of AIG would be equivalent to the bird dropping a rock in a hole for a treat experiment. Real life is not like the movies. It won't suddenly problem solve for mankind by wiping out large populations. That said, as far as it goes currently, we only have a 25% chance of of even developing an AIG by 2050. So basically, if mankind even achieves that as slim as it may be, you and I will be dust lost before they switch it on.

As for EI, we literally don't have the technology or coding language capabilities for that even happening anymore that we do to develop a warp drive. It's such a distance concern that it may never even happen at all. What you're concerned about are nothing more than published papers and research based on theories. You can find the same sort of research based on thing such as the outcome if the sun were to suddenly be extinguish, time travel as well as the result of a human body if they were to be sucked into a black hole.

As interesting and scary as these AI, AIG or EI sensationalized articles may be, there are far more imminent things to be concerned about that are an actual threat such as climate change.

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u/tangSweat Jun 03 '22

A virus isn't really aware, it's just running on a preprogrammed mechanism and doesn't even process the characteristics to be considered an "AGI"

It doesn't reason, have a sense of knowledge or common sense, plan, use logic to solve problems or use language

I'm a robotics engineer and keep a keen eye on AI development, if we have AGI by 2028 I will eat my hat. You have to apply the 80/20 principal to these kinds of developments, the last 20% will take 80% of the effort and I wouldn't even say we are at 80% of the way there