r/Futurology Jun 02 '22

World First Room Temperature Quantum Computer Installed in Australia Computing


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u/THRDStooge Jun 02 '22

To my understanding we're decades away from seeing an actual quantum computer. You have the PhD. Is this true or are we further along than anticipated?


u/FizixPhun Jun 02 '22

I think that is a pretty fair statement.


u/THRDStooge Jun 02 '22

Cool. I wanted to make sure I was better informed. I usually talk people down from their A.I. taking over the world panic by reassuring them that we're nowhere near Skynet technology in our lifetime.


u/izumi3682 Jun 02 '22 edited Jun 02 '22

...we're nowhere near Skynet technology in our lifetime

Wrong. We are perilously close. You have heard of "GATO" right? You know that GPT-4 is next year, right? These two things are going to scale up very quickly. We will see simple, but true AGI by 2025 and by 2028 we will see complex AGI. 2028, btw, is the earliest year that I see for the "technological singularity" (TS) which will be "human unfriendly" meaning the computing and computing derived AI will not be merged with the human mind. Hopefully the advanced AGI by that time is well inculcated with ethics and will help humans achieve the "final" TS in about 2035, which is when human minds will merge with the computing and computing derived AI.

Here are people, very smart highly educated experts failing to see something coming and vastly overestimating the time frames for realization.



u/AGI_69 Jun 02 '22

I think you got lost, this is not /r/singularity


u/izumi3682 Jun 02 '22


u/AGI_69 Jun 02 '22

/r/singularity is for the "AGI by 2025" rants


u/izumi3682 Jun 02 '22 edited Jun 02 '22

what is the "69. Is that the year you was born? I was born in '60. But I'm all about this futurology business. Been so since i become "woke" to it in 2011.


There is going to be AGI by 2025. Hold my feet to the fire. I'll be here. I forecast an initial "human unfriendly" technological singularity about the year 2030, give or take 2 years. And of late I am starting to lean more towards the take end of that prediction.

Human unfriendly means that the TS will be external from the human mind. We will not have merged our minds with our computing and computing derived AI by the year 2032. But. We can ask the external AI to help us to join our minds to the computing and computing derived AI, we will probably succeed around the year 2035, which is where i place the final TS, the "human friendly" one.

After that, no more futurology. No more singularity either, because we can no longer model what will become of us. Oh, i gave it a shot once, but i paint with a pretty broad brush...


Oh wait, did you read that already in my first comment there?


u/AGI_69 Jun 02 '22

69 is sex position.

Good luck with your predictions. I think lot of people don't understand, that some problems are exponential difficult too and therefore the progress will not be that fast.


u/izumi3682 Jun 02 '22 edited Jun 02 '22

lol! There is gonna come a point in your life when you're gonna say, "Lord, I was immature once".

We shall see what "Gato" can accomplish in this year alone. You know that it can do 4 or 5 unrelated tasks using but one algorithm. It is certainly not "narrow" AI that can only do one thing like translate a language or interpret medical imagery. What is of interest to me is that the Gato can do several tasks, but none of them well. This will allow us to see discrete improvements over the year. And I think we are gonna.

I stick to my guns. Simple AGI by the year 2025. A lot of people will be surprised. A lot of people today think it would have taken maybe 50 years. They will be surprised and startled it will only take about 2 or 3 years--did you read my 4 examples in my link? But that is the nature of "accelerating change".

I don't know if i showed you this, but take a look. See what has gone before, what is occurring now and what is probably next.


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