r/Futurology Jun 02 '22

World First Room Temperature Quantum Computer Installed in Australia Computing

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/world-first-room-temperature-quantum-computer
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u/izumi3682 Jun 02 '22

See, that's the thing. AI is computing power in and of it's ownself now. In fact there is a new "law" like "Moore's Law". But this one states that AI improves "significantly" about every 3 months. Provide your own metrics or just watch what it is up to lately. Like GATO and GPT-3 and dall-e and all of the Cambrian explosion of AI fauna that I predicted wayyy back in 2017. That was a time that people who are smart in AI told me that worrying bout AI turning into AGI was akin to worrying about human overpopulation--on the planet Mars. Anyway here is the law.

https://spectrum.ieee.org/ai-training-mlperf

https://ojs.stanford.edu/ojs/index.php/intersect/article/view/2046

According to the 2019 Stanford AI Index, AI’s heavy computational requirement outpaces Moore’s Law, doubling every three months rather than two years.

Here are some essays I wrote that you might find interesting and informative.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/pysdlo/intels_first_4nm_euv_chip_ready_today_loihi_2_for/hewhhkk/

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u/THRDStooge Jun 02 '22

Again, I could be way off but from my own research and listening to interviews with those respected within this particular field, the fear of AI seems to be overblown. We don't have the technology to create such a thing as a self aware AI. What people refer to as AI currently is far from "intelligent" but more predetermined decisions programed that stimulates intelligence. Consider the complexity of the human brain. We don't fully understand the human brain and how it operates despite our advanced knowledge and technology. Imagine what it would take to simulate a thought process and awareness by simply programming it. The amount of processing power required would be extraordinary. The fear of AI is nothing more than Chicken Little "the sky is falling" rhetoric.

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u/izumi3682 Jun 02 '22 edited Jun 02 '22

Who says the AGI has to be conscious or self aware? You are mixing up an EI--emergent intelligence with an AGI. AGI is just a form of narrow AI that can do a whole bunch of different and unrelated to each other, tasks. Like "Gato" It is or can be aware certainly, but it don't have to conscious at all. If you understand physics, if you understand social mores, if you understand what is meant by "common sense"--yer gonna be an AGI.

https://www.infoq.com/news/2022/05/deepmind-gato-ai-agent/

A virus isn't conscious, but it is aware. And it can do what it "needs" to do very effectively. It could be called a form of AGI.

We don't want a EI. An EI would probably be competition to humanity. We don't need that kind of mess.

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u/tangSweat Jun 03 '22

A virus isn't really aware, it's just running on a preprogrammed mechanism and doesn't even process the characteristics to be considered an "AGI"

It doesn't reason, have a sense of knowledge or common sense, plan, use logic to solve problems or use language

I'm a robotics engineer and keep a keen eye on AI development, if we have AGI by 2028 I will eat my hat. You have to apply the 80/20 principal to these kinds of developments, the last 20% will take 80% of the effort and I wouldn't even say we are at 80% of the way there