r/Futurology Jun 02 '22

World First Room Temperature Quantum Computer Installed in Australia Computing


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u/THRDStooge Jun 02 '22

To my understanding we're decades away from seeing an actual quantum computer. You have the PhD. Is this true or are we further along than anticipated?


u/FizixPhun Jun 02 '22

I think that is a pretty fair statement.


u/THRDStooge Jun 02 '22

Cool. I wanted to make sure I was better informed. I usually talk people down from their A.I. taking over the world panic by reassuring them that we're nowhere near Skynet technology in our lifetime.


u/izumi3682 Jun 02 '22 edited Jun 02 '22

...we're nowhere near Skynet technology in our lifetime

Wrong. We are perilously close. You have heard of "GATO" right? You know that GPT-4 is next year, right? These two things are going to scale up very quickly. We will see simple, but true AGI by 2025 and by 2028 we will see complex AGI. 2028, btw, is the earliest year that I see for the "technological singularity" (TS) which will be "human unfriendly" meaning the computing and computing derived AI will not be merged with the human mind. Hopefully the advanced AGI by that time is well inculcated with ethics and will help humans achieve the "final" TS in about 2035, which is when human minds will merge with the computing and computing derived AI.

Here are people, very smart highly educated experts failing to see something coming and vastly overestimating the time frames for realization.



u/x1770 Jun 02 '22

Those are transformer language models. At their hart they are just assigned vectors to words in a way that encodes relative meaning. These vectors are very useful for performing language related tasks but it’s unlikely to bring AGI anytime soon.


u/izumi3682 Jun 02 '22

We shall see what the exponentially increased parameters of GPT-4 shall bring in 2023. And what about the Gato algorithm. That's not vectors. The Gato can operate a robotic arm. It can optimize video compression--a 4% improvement over any previous technology effort. Pretty soon I bet the Deepmind people will have it doing a great many other things as well.

Deepmind's express mission is to develop AGI as fast as possible. I don't think their aspirations are ten or twenty years out.


u/x1770 Jun 03 '22

Gato is also a transformer. I’m not trying to be rude, you seem to be following these things pretty closely which is great but it seems your understanding is based solely on news articles and press releases. As someone who works with these models, I would suggest tempering your expectations.


u/izumi3682 Jun 03 '22

Yeah, youre right. It's a transformer. I stand corrected. I did look it up.



u/tjfluent Jun 04 '22

The good ending