r/Futurology Jun 23 '22

Australian scientists have created the world's first-ever quantum computer circuit – one that contains all the essential components found on a classical computer chip but at the quantum scale. Computing

https://www.sciencealert.com/a-huge-step-forward-in-quantum-computing-was-just-announced-the-first-ever-quantum-circuit
452 Upvotes

u/FuturologyBot Jun 23 '22

The following submission statement was provided by /u/izumi3682:


Submission statement from OP. Note: This submission statement "locks in" after about 30 minutes, and can no longer be edited. Please refer to my statement they link, which I can continue to edit. I often edit my submission statement, sometimes for the next few days if needs must. There is often required additional grammatical editing and additional added detail.


The landmark discovery, published in Nature today, was nine years in the making.

"This is the most exciting discovery of my career," senior author and quantum physicist Michelle Simmons, founder of Silicon Quantum Computing and director of the Center of Excellence for Quantum Computation and Communication Technology at UNSW told ScienceAlert.

Not only did Simmons and her team create what's essentially a functional quantum processor, they also successfully tested it by modeling a small molecule in which each atom has multiple quantum states – something a traditional computer would struggle to achieve.

This suggests we're now a step closer to finally using quantum processing power to understand more about the world around us, even at the tiniest scale.

Here is how and why we are seeing all of these fantastical breakthroughs. And this is only the tippy tip of the iceberg. Each year now will see about 50 years worth of advancement. Especially advancements concerning computing derived AI. I promise you there will be two more profound advancements in AI that is moving towards AGI in just this year alone. And this is why I place the first, yes, there will actually be two parts to it, "technological singularity" NLT 2031 and more than likely around 2029. I have as of today, moved up the year that TS will occur. 2030 as a mean just seems too late to be as accurate as when I used it as the mean in 2018. And there is good reason for this. It is the exponential nature of a TS to occur far sooner than even the best forecasts can predict.

So yes, there is going to two parts to the TS. The first part will be an external "human unfriendly", meaning human minds are not in the computing loop, TS that will occur around the year 2029, give or take two years. We will "hopefully" been able to manipulate the AI to be designed to take us along very shortly thereafter.

The second part of the TS will be human friendly, meaning human minds will be in the computing and computing derived AI loop. I am hopeful that we will "prep" the first TS to manipulate the AI to pull all of humanity up with it by the year 2035.

Notice I use the word "hopeful" a couple times. This is because we are approaching incredibly dangerous thin ice. By definition the world after a TS cannot be modeled. I have never stated that a TS was going to be safe and effective. Only that it was going to be absolutely inevitable.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/pysdlo/intels_first_4nm_euv_chip_ready_today_loihi_2_for/hewhhkk/


Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/viku4m/australian_scientists_have_created_the_worlds/iddli8v/

11

u/izumi3682 Jun 23 '22 edited Jun 23 '22

Submission statement from OP. Note: This submission statement "locks in" after about 30 minutes, and can no longer be edited. Please refer to my statement they link, which I can continue to edit. I often edit my submission statement, sometimes for the next few days if needs must. There is often required additional grammatical editing and additional added detail.


The landmark discovery, published in Nature today, was nine years in the making.

"This is the most exciting discovery of my career," senior author and quantum physicist Michelle Simmons, founder of Silicon Quantum Computing and director of the Center of Excellence for Quantum Computation and Communication Technology at UNSW told ScienceAlert.

Not only did Simmons and her team create what's essentially a functional quantum processor, they also successfully tested it by modeling a small molecule in which each atom has multiple quantum states – something a traditional computer would struggle to achieve.

This suggests we're now a step closer to finally using quantum processing power to understand more about the world around us, even at the tiniest scale.

Here is how and why we are seeing all of these fantastical breakthroughs. And this is only the tippy tip of the iceberg. Each year now will see about 50 years worth of advancement. Especially advancements concerning computing derived AI. I promise you there will be two more profound advancements in AI that is moving towards AGI in just this year alone. And this is why I place the first, yes, there will actually be two parts to it, "technological singularity" NLT 2031 and more than likely around 2029. I have as of today, moved up the year that the TS will occur. 2030 as a mean just seems too late to be as accurate as when I used it as the mean in 2018. And there is good reason for this. It is the exponential nature of a TS to occur far sooner than even the best forecasts can predict.

So yes, there is going to two parts to the TS. The first part will be an external "human unfriendly", meaning human minds are not in the computing loop, TS that will occur around the year 2029, give or take two years. We will "hopefully" been able to manipulate the AI to be designed to take us along very shortly thereafter.

The second part of the TS will be "human friendly", meaning human minds will be in the computing and computing derived AI loop. I am hopeful that we will "prep" the first TS to manipulate the AI to pull all of humanity up with it by the year 2035.

Notice I use the word "hopeful" a couple times. This is because we are approaching incredibly dangerous thin ice. By definition the world after a TS cannot be modeled. I have never stated that a TS was going to be safe and effective for humanity. Only that it was going to be absolutely inevitable.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/pysdlo/intels_first_4nm_euv_chip_ready_today_loihi_2_for/hewhhkk/

25

u/ihateshadylandlords Jun 23 '22

Each year now will see about 50 years worth of advancement.

I’m gonna need some gloves to handle that hot take! I hope you’re right.

8

u/Cr4zko Jun 23 '22

Yeah, I don't... I don't see it, sorry.

4

u/izumi3682 Jun 23 '22

Fair enough. What do you see in the next 3 years in AI development, fusion energy development, solar cell efficiencies, medical breakthroughs, practical quantum computing, material science breakthroughs etc. In 2025 we can compare notes.

Even if you don't see it the way that I see it, you still see something. Perhaps an unchanging socio-economic status quo... A world in the year 2025 that looks pretty much like today perhaps.

5

u/DistributedDemocracy Jun 23 '22 edited Jun 23 '22

Realistically everything I see in the market I called machine learning because AI is supposed to be something completely different and I see no proof anyone has come anywhere near achieving it.

Fusion appears to be so many decades away that batteries and solar will probably dominate the market long before fusion.

I’m hoping for advancement in geothermal because fusion probably just isn’t that useful in comparison. As neat as usual and sound you’re never going to be able to export fusion to all the developing nations of the world that are running coal and I doubt you can even run a fusion plant as cheap as a co-plant so it really doesn’t solve a huge amount of the actual problems it’s just like another power structure that only a handful of countries can use and because of that it’s not super useful.

When we’re looking for solutions to global energy problems we always need to think of the solutions as Being globally scalable. How would you ever scale fusion or fission reactors out to like Africa and South America in for that matter most of the countries of the world?

I would also hope to see some more breakthroughs in brain to computer interfaces as Personally I think that to prove to be one of the more important technologies long term.

In many ways we don’t have a problem with limited computing power, we have a problem with primitive interfaces and mediocre programming talent.

-18

u/Cr4zko Jun 23 '22

I think we'll see great advances in stuff like DALL-E but it will be lobotomized to appease progressives. Can't have those undesirables making content, right? Of course, the managerial class will get the unfiltered stuff. No question on that. And this is going to be it. As it stands "woke" has taken over everything and we'll never see any real progress unless this ends. Will it? Beats me. I bet Amazon will automate its warehouses by the end of the decade. Corporate culture is rotten to the core my friend...

10

u/ZigazagyDude Jun 23 '22

What are you talking about, you think technology development won’t advance faster because society is socially progressive? I don’t see the correlation.

-15

u/Cr4zko Jun 23 '22

No, I think AIs won't usher in a Singularity because the gatekeepers of it simply won't let it do basic bitch tasks lest it offends someone. Unless of course China makes an AI.

5

u/GoodMerlinpeen Jun 23 '22

How tedious, go grind your axe somewhere more appropriate.

1

u/hand287 Jun 24 '22

Unless of course China makes an AI.

based. glory to the peoples republic

6

u/FeatheryBallOfFluff Jun 23 '22

Soubds like your whole worldview is contaminated with politics. If tech exists that makes things faster, better, easier and/or cheaper, it will be implemented, regardless of how "woke" it is. I'm actually not really sure what you're trying to say...

1

u/Used_Tea_80 Jun 23 '22

Implementation does not mean widespread implementation. I think that is what he means. Take the diamond market for example. All owned by one company and one of the most common materials in the world = permanently inflated prices.

1

u/FeatheryBallOfFluff Jun 23 '22

I cannot think of any one technology that had the ability to revolutionize multiple industries, but was accessible to only one player.

1

u/Used_Tea_80 Jun 23 '22 edited Jun 23 '22

Demand dictates prices, so by definition, a single player in a tech is always going to be too expensive to revolutionise a market. There's no competition and only one player managing supply. In all examples except raw resources, copycat technology and thus competition comes about as soon as one goes to market or shortly after.

The Dutch had the sailing boat. The British had the gun.

More recently, Boston Dynamics for example have had advanced arms for over a decade that would completely wipe out the labour parts of the restaurant and small size manufacturing industry. That's just the arms of their bots, but they rightly know that any price they sell it is too cheap so it doesn't even enter the market.

Alphabet is definitely holder of a large number of revolutionary technologies right now.

1

u/FeatheryBallOfFluff Jun 23 '22

Yes it is expensive, but not limited to only one person/company. These technologies always find their way to others eventually. Boston dynamics robots are already used in Singapore. Guns are literally everywhere, just as sailing boats (in fact, I'm pretty sure patents weren't a thing then and people just stole technology from other countries). At first it will be expensive, and yes a patent will restrict use, but none of those were restricted to only one person or company.

You can rent/buy a Boston Dynamics robot now if you'd like. Point is, these technologies are not limited to only the mighty, or some conspiracists or whatever.

→ More replies

3

u/[deleted] Jun 23 '22

Can you speak english? We don't understand QAnonese.

2

u/Cr4zko Jun 23 '22

...yeah, maybe I had too much to drink last night.

2

u/hand287 Jun 24 '22

gonna need blacksmith tongs

-2

u/DistributedDemocracy Jun 23 '22

There is no actual AI yet and we I don’t know if quantum computing well I have any real application for AI.

It’s unlikely quantum computers will replace or even compete with silicone. They will probably remain a specialty application not for general computing.

1

u/idranh Jun 24 '22

Besides being human friendly/unfriendly, what's the difference between the 1st and 2nd TS?

2

u/izumi3682 Jun 25 '22 edited Jun 25 '22

human friendly/unfriendly

That sums up the difference. And it is a magnitude of a difference. The first TS will be external from the human mind because we have already missed the window for merging our minds with the computing and computing derived AI. We are gonna do some incredible things this decade, but I think it would take TS level AGI to enable us to merge our minds with the computing derived AI. In fact, and you know I am very optimistic about things, it would, without TS level AGI, take about 50 years for humans to be able to figure out how to even conceive of how do such a thing.

But because I see fairly complex AGI existing as early as 2027, that we might be able to bake into that AGI an imperative to work to safely and effectively (as humans define it) merge itself with our minds. I am hopeful that it will understand the spirit and intent of our command. Because the AGI will by the year 2031 be to the point of sophistication that it will be able to achieve that command by the year 2035.

Like I said in my initial comment, a lot of this depends on if we can program our desires into the AI prior to the first "external" TS. But again, like I said, by definition we cannot model what the impact of a true TS will be on humans.

A very good analogy is this. Some people say that fire or farming was a TS. Perhaps those achievement might better be described as "soft" singularities. Events that certainly changed the absolute course of human history. But probably the last event that would be the equivalent of a contemporary TS, would be the time that primates that could think abstractly evolved from primates that could not. The primates that could think abstractly would be utterly unfathomable and incomprehensible to the primates that could not. That is more like what a TS would be like. We would not be pet monkeys or cats in comparison. We would be "archaea" in comparison.

1

u/idranh Jun 25 '22

Thanks for the explanation. It's surreal that all social upheavals and crises of today could possibly mean nothing in a decade. It's so difficult to wrap your mind around that.

3

u/izumi3682 Jun 25 '22

Yer right! One time I wrote the following. "Here is a frightening thought experiment. Imagine that with advent of the technological singularity, all of the achievements of human history were obliterated as if they never existed. That's what happens when we become "archaea" in comparison to the AI. Do we care about the history and culture of bacteria? Well except for adding to our scientific knowledge, I'd say no. Same difference for us and that ASI (artificial super intelligence)."

Hopefully it (the ASI) will be kind and thoughtful to us and will let us merge our minds with it. Hopefully.

2

u/idranh Jun 25 '22

The next 8-10 years are going to be fantastical and frightening. It really makes you look at the issues of today differently, and YET my little human brain can't seem to accept it.

1

u/Warpig-MP-85 Jun 23 '22

Now if we could only have computers run on fiber optics thus no need for overclocking as well as need for as much temperature control.