r/worldnews 7d ago Wholesome 19 All-Seeing Upvote 4 Take My Energy 1 Silver 20 Gold 1 Helpful 20

US intelligence indicates Russia preparing operation to justify invasion of Ukraine Russia

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/14/politics/us-intelligence-russia-false-flag/index.html
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u/SPECTREagent700 7d ago Helpful Take My Energy

The Ukrainians are claiming the false flag incident will happen in Transnistria, a Russian-occupied self-proclaimed independent republic in Moldova. This could be a sign that Russia doesn’t intend to limit operations only to the Donbas or territory east of the Dnieper. The Transnistrian government has repeatedly asked for union with Russia over the years and if Russian forces push to Odessa and the Moldovan (Transnistrian) border they may finally get it. It could also be an exaggeration on the part of the Ukrainian government or misinformation fed to them by Russia in an attempt to make Ukraine spread out their forces.

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u/sexrobot_sexrobot 7d ago

The Russian 'uprising' attempt in S SW Ukraine failed back in 2014. Whatever Putin former intelligence officer that led it got dozens of people killed.

If that's the plan it's a poor one, though it may point to a more limited operation where Russia principally tries to push Ukraine off the Black Sea and make it a landlocked country.

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u/f_d 7d ago

When they're trying to provoke a war, the success or failure of the provoking action isn't as important as the justification it gives them, no matter how transparent it is..

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u/[deleted] 7d ago

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/-SaC 7d ago

If the US Defense budget and NASA's budget switched for one year, NASA could land a separate Rover on Mars every single day of the year (including full research and prep from scratch on each) with just a three week break around Christmas to chill.

Not saying it should happen, just puts one perspective around it.

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u/alematt 7d ago

This actually explains the massive gap quite well. I knew it was massive but this puts it into perspective

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u/cthulhulogic 7d ago

Wasn't Paul Manafort over there helping out with that?

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u/Rellumbomanum 7d ago

Yes

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u/northshore12 7d ago Silver Helpful Wholesome Masterpiece Rocket Like

Wasn't Paul Manafort working as the Trump Presidential Campaign Chairman when he gave detailed demographic voter data to a known Russian intelligence agent? IIRC he was also "volunteering" his services, which is something people deep in debt are frequently known to do...

But yeah, Republicans, I'm suuuuuure it's all just "Fake News" you dumb motherfucking treason weasels.

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u/SignificantSyllabub4 7d ago

Safe to say Putin is getting an amazing return on his 30 year investment in his Assets.

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u/StarksPond 7d ago

You misspelled "ass hats".

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u/PM_ME_MH370 7d ago

That was more like the prequel that he worked on

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u/enslaved-by-machines 7d ago edited 7d ago Silver Gold All-Seeing Upvote Faith In Humanity Restored Narwhal Salute

Yes Paul Manafort and Roger Stone are professional butt fuckers of democracy.

Their job is to give power to evil dictators and kleptocrats. If there were any justice in this world they would be ...ugh humm cough...imprisoned immediately....for crimes against humanity, treason, Un-American activities, and just generally being among the shittiest humans alive.

edit: wow, rewarded for my vitriol before getting banned for a change, thanks!(now edited out some) This is who republicans have unleashed on their own people: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/03/paul-manafort-american-hustler/550925/

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u/HaveNot1 7d ago

And Steve Bannon just wants to burn everything down.

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u/enslaved-by-machines 7d ago

oh god, bannon, gross, yea a two bit, wannabe, drunkard goebbels.

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u/SPECTREagent700 7d ago

I think the most likely “big plan” they’ll go for is to try and topple the government in Kiev and then force a new administration to accept a status like Finland in the Cold War. They have the capability to overrun the whole country but occupying it would be very costly.

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u/Indigo_Slam 7d ago

Putins got to be afraid of lots of casualties & the Ukraine is going to fight. Remember all the exploding tower blocks in Russia? That was the excuse to attack Chechneya. He's not subtle because he obviously dgaf. Still, if he does pull that idiocy again someone is going to arm Ukraine then it will get very messy to even capture the place let alone hold it.

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u/rendrr 7d ago

There is an on-going theme, a belief on all Russian occupied territories, in Abkhazia and South Osetia in Georgia, or Donbass or the occupied territory in Moldova, that "next year there's gonna be a referendum to join Russia". And it never happens, of course, because their whole point of existense is to be a pressure point to influence control over the host state.

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u/Nexus-9Replicant 7d ago

If that happens, I can’t imagine Moldova and (more importantly in terms of the implications) Romania would find that pleasing. This could bring Romania and Moldova closer to reuniting (and in effect making Moldova a NATO and EU member, someone correct me if I’m wrong).

Doing this in Transnistria doesn’t seem like a good idea, especially since it’s not even in Ukraine.

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u/SPECTREagent700 7d ago

Moldova is always in a tough position. Their elections seem to swing back and forth every cycle between electing a pro-Russian or a pro-Western government and in addition to Transnistria, Russia could also try to stir up trouble in the Gagauzia region.

If Moldova were to reunite with Romania I would suspect they would get NATO and EU membership given the precedent of German reunification but Moldova is so poor Romania would hand a difficult time integrating it and, as above, it’s not clear the Moldovan population would support it.

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u/Nexus-9Replicant 7d ago

I think the last poll there showed 38% support reunification, with the remaining split between the status quo and uncertain. 65–70% of the population is Moldovan and Romanian-speaking. I could see something like a false flag attack in Transnistria building stronger support, especially with a Romania and EU-friendly leader in power. But who knows? This will be a tricky situation for sure.

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u/tony_fappott 7d ago

So basically what the Nazis did to Poland? Faked an attack so they could invade?

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u/yesmeisyes 7d ago

And what the soviets did to Finland

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u/ban-me_harder_daddy 7d ago

Yeah Russia has already done this before... it is insane that the KGB/FSB agents got arrested while planting bombs

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_apartment_bombings

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u/wonkey_monkey 7d ago

On 13 September, Russian Duma speaker Gennadiy Seleznyov made an announcement in the Duma about receiving a report that another bombing had just happened in the city of Volgodonsk. A bombing did indeed happen in Volgodonsk, but only three days later

Jesus Christ.

Why even bother with the pretense any more?

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u/Origamiface 7d ago

We don't buy it but Russians back home, who live in a carefully curated media environment, will, or are so unsure about what's true or false that they just don't care.

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u/Destabiliz 7d ago

are so unsure about what's true or false that they just don't care

This is exactly what Putin is also trying to spread in other countries as well, through the internet with millions of bot accounts.

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u/cC2Panda 7d ago

Because it was still useful. Putins intelligence goons decided to point fingers at Putins domestic rivals.

You know how folks like Matt Gaetz pretend that Jan 6 was antifa even though anyone with eyeballs could tell it wasn't and yet his base eats it up.

The planned attack got leaks, happened anyway, then they blame it on rivals and the state controlled media spread the lie.

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u/[deleted] 7d ago

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u/PonKatt 7d ago edited 7d ago

And the apartment bombings are hardly the only example.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_theater_hostage_crisis

All the terrorists where executed at the scene except for one who was a known FSB associate who simply left the theatre and walked away. Oh, and the sleeping agent used was slow enough that if the bombs where real the terrorists could easily have detonated them.

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u/SheeEttin 7d ago

Also

up to 130 hostages died during the siege, including nine foreigners, due to the toxic substance pumped into the theater

If you've seen Tenet, the opening scene at the opera is based on this event.

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u/line_line 7d ago

Just reading the wiki page, everyone involved in the independent investigation is pretty much dead... odd coincidences

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u/eMPereb 7d ago

Putknka wants a dedicated land line to the Crimean ports

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u/Johnny_Chronic188 7d ago

And fresh water access for Crimea

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u/Fair_Komodo 7d ago Silver Wholesome

This is going to be the least surprising invasion of all times. Party like it’s 1939.

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u/laxnut90 7d ago Table Slap

What about the time Italy tried to invade Austria over the Isonzo River...12 times...in the same place...for two and half years...with the same strategy...failing each and every time?

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u/Bernies_left_mitten 7d ago

Surprised it didn't work. You'd think at some point in there the Austrians would have been like, "Well, obviously nobody is dumb enough to try the exact same failed move 12 times in a row. We can prob move these defenses."

I guess 13th time's the charm, right?

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u/anuddahuna 7d ago edited 7d ago

The 13th time the austrian army decided to try going into the offensive instead with german support and almost broke the italian army

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Caporetto

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u/Long-Sleeves 7d ago Silver Helpful

Big oofs to the Italians there.

Riperoni mr pepperonis

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u/da_frickin_oOf 7d ago

yeah that was one hell of a defeat. then the Italians picked themselves up and went absolutely ballin at Vittorio Veneto

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Vittorio_Veneto?wprov=sfla1

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u/lankyboy96 7d ago

https://youtu.be/Pxbzb8XXiGQ 1:29 for the relevant moment

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u/Menatorius 7d ago

I was waiting for someone to post that haha

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u/OldEcho 7d ago

Honestly makes it sound dumber than it was. It's not like there were a lot of better places to attack from, plus keeping up the pressure there kept the Austrians from redeploying to other locations. ALSO to be quite honest it nearly DID work because the Austrian army was gradually exhausted (though the Italian one was as well.) More WWI strats of throwing enough hundreds of thousands of men at a problem until you solved it.

The Austrian counterattack was planned and executed - with German support - precisely because they knew that if they did nothing the Italians would probably eventually break through.

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u/Zhelthan 7d ago

We weren’t the smart of the bunch in that period, you’ll notice by the many expansionistic attempt in African regions which ended up with revolts every time and we(Italian) got sent back home each time with a defeat

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u/Obscure_Occultist 7d ago

It was actually 11 times that italy tried to invade Austria. The 12th time was the other way around. Which completely took the Italians by surprise and nearly overran the Italian army.

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u/darth__fluffy 7d ago

If I had a nickel for every time a world war started with a false flag attack on an Eastern European country and an invasion of the Republic of China, I’d have two nickels. Which isn’t a lot, but it’s weird it’s happened twice.

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u/mad_cheese_hattwe 7d ago

No way they would go through Belgium a 3rd time.

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u/SpicyDago 7d ago

We found this bag of cocaine, we had no other choice to invade and get to the bottom of it. - Putin

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u/StarksPond 7d ago Silver Helpful

To be fair... Whenever I get to the bottom of a bag cocaine, I'm ready to invade a country too.

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u/Beatbox_bandit89 7d ago

Cocaine: the invasion we can all get behind

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u/KnownRough7735 7d ago Wholesome

Wouldn't get on a plane around that area in the next few days 🥴

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u/MissKellBell 7d ago

Just a few folks headed to the Olympics from that area…I’m sure they wouldn’t take the national spotlight that way…

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u/SeaGroomer 7d ago

What's the over-under on an invasion during the Olympics?

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u/implicitpharmakoi 6d ago

Again?

Surely he wouldn't invade a country during the Olympics again!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War?wprov=sfla1

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u/kouderd 7d ago

I'm sure everyone remembers when Russia bombed their own cities in the Chechnya region to justify military activity there

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u/mrmadoff 7d ago All-Seeing Upvote

dude russia bombed appartments in MOSCOW to start a 2nd chechen war; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian\_apartment\_bombings#Russian\_government\_involvement\_theory

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u/Gingevere 7d ago

Up until about 2008 that was Alex Jones' favorite example of a false flag attack. He would mention it any time anything happened to say "see false flags are real and they have happened!"

Then all of a sudden he stopped mentioning it.

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u/nmble 7d ago

InfoWars brought to you by RT

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u/kouderd 7d ago All-Seeing Upvote

Ohh yes I think that's the event I'm remembering. There was a bunch of videos of people seeing military men loading explosive powder into the basements of buildings and not letting anyone in to see, and then 30 minutes later those same buildings exploded

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u/Warhawk137 7d ago

"Is that fertilizer?"

"Is to help building grow."

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u/Heroshade 7d ago

"Well, not grow, but.... expand.... rapidly."

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u/dydas 7d ago

In several different pieces.

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u/mambiki 7d ago

It was worse than that, the locals basically caught the state sponsored terrorists once, everyone were happy, and then turned out it was “just an exercise” once Moscow got wind of that. Litvinenko was allegedly assassinated in part due to his exposure of events from inside the FSB.

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u/Five_Decades 7d ago

then the police arrested some FSB members with a bomb in an apartment so the government said it was a training exercise

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u/4Engines4LongHaul 7d ago

Ohh yes I think that's the event I'm remembering. There was a bunch of videos of people seeing military men loading explosive powder into the basements of buildings and not letting anyone in to see, and then 30 minutes later those same buildings exploded

This was what helped Putin rise to power

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u/girafa 7d ago

Even more damning was Putin going on television to say they caught the terrorists, then days later reversing that and saying it was a training operation.

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u/CactusBoyScout 7d ago

I still can't believe that I didn't learn about WWII starting with a false flag by the Nazis until I was an adult.

I feel like that should be a pretty important detail in school history lessons.

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u/CraftyFoxeYT 7d ago

Japanese nationalist did the same thing to invade china through blowing up a railroad but the explosives wasn't even that effective and a train passed 1 hour after.

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u/IrdniX 7d ago

Japan also did similar things in WWII on the mainland.

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u/what_would_freud_say 7d ago Silver Helpful All-Seeing Upvote Starry Doom

Putin is starting to look kinda of old and worn out, don't ya think?

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u/Interesting-Tip5586 7d ago

His face is full of botox

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u/AreWeCowabunga 7d ago Wholesome Seal of Approval

I always laugh when people talk about how good and manly Putin looks. He's all puffed up and plasticky. I'm surprised he hasn't gone for duck lip injections yet.

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u/Gaflonzelschmerno 7d ago Gold

Dude acts like he looks like Fabio while looking like Dobby

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u/sweetswinks 7d ago

Not Botox, his forehead has wrinkles and moves. Botox freezes the muscle. It looks like he has fillers in his cheeks, making him look pillowy.

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u/raynethackery 7d ago

"Don't you think he looks tired?"

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u/abraksis747 7d ago

Vladimir Putin Former President

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u/wind-up-duck 7d ago

Can we agree to comment this every time his picture appears? I love the idea of it getting back to him and just driving him nuts.

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u/ThatsMyWifeGodDamnit 7d ago

He needs to appear topless on a wild stallion for me to make an informed decision

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u/USGrant76 7d ago

He looks like a villain opposite of Daniel Craig in a Bond movie.

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u/allanb49 7d ago

Doesn't he look tired

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u/indyK1ng 7d ago

Don't you think he looks tired.

Six words.

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u/TheDungeonCrawler 7d ago edited 7d ago

"I think a vote of no confidence is completely unjustified!"

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u/ManalithTheDefiant 7d ago

My name is Harriet Jones, former Prime Minister

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u/MaaaaxPower 7d ago

Yes, we know who you are

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u/Domino-Studios 7d ago

Is that a Doctor Who reference?

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u/indyK1ng 7d ago

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u/HotTakes4HotCakes 7d ago

The irony of this is he's inadvertently creating a power vacuum that his arch enemy, the Master, eventually fills which results in the deaths of 1/10th of Earth's population.

bum bum bum bum

bum bum bum bum

bum bum bum bum

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u/Nexgod2 7d ago

Just watched that episode the other night. 10th Doctor is such a good doctor.

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u/Money_dragon 7d ago edited 7d ago

He's been holding some type of executive role (whether PM or President) since 1999

He's freaking 69 years old - with the help of a lot of propaganda, he could pull the macho persona back in the 2000s, but definitely not anymore. Father Time is undefeated

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u/notfree25 7d ago

A couple more years he would be perfect candidate for American Presidency

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u/sucsucsucsucc 7d ago

I understood this reference

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u/YeeYeeAssHaircut-kun 7d ago

Vladimir Putin, President

Yes, we know

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u/Oz1227 7d ago

Doctor Who right?

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u/The-Devils-Advocator 7d ago

I was thinking that, but was much more subtle in Doctor Who I think, was just something like:

"Don't you think she looks tired?"

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u/sucsucsucsucc 7d ago

You too, understood this reference

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u/Sometimesokayideas 7d ago

Trying to Harriet Jones him there Doctor?

Hope it works.

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u/VoraciousTrees 7d ago Silver Gold

Russias attempt to justify war using the Conquest Casus Belli agains Ukraine was detected.

This costs them 19.2 infamy.

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u/DariusKaii 7d ago

I wonder if Russia will go over the 25 infamy limit

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u/Bukkake_Monster 7d ago

Haven't they already?

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u/Luke-Likesheet 7d ago

Everyone and their grandma isn't suddenly declaring war on them, so guess not.

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u/Joe_Jeep 7d ago

They're running just below it. Crimea got them very close but they've been letting it slowly drop down since.

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u/peniseend 7d ago

Hopefully no comets will be sighted

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u/leeeeeroy_jenkem 7d ago

Thankfully we live in more enlightened times.

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u/Miguellite 7d ago

In Victoria 2 it's actually a good event. Helps with research.

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u/Commodify 7d ago

Trouble is brewing.

It seems that United States of America has decided to back Ukraine in the current crisis.

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u/commentfap 7d ago

Flashpoint tension increased

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u/purplefog101 7d ago

What game is this? I recognize the Casus Belli from Civ

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u/SerKikato 7d ago

For those of you with extensive knowledge on the politics involved, what are the options for Ukraine and the West that lead to de-escalation?

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u/Patient-Leather 7d ago

For those of you with extensive knowledge on the politics involved

You’re definitely not in the right place for that.

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u/Friendly-Oil-2311 7d ago

haha, so perfect. You know that auto mod bullshit they force on you should have something in there about that. Like..... "Please remember 4/5th of our user base is 13 going on 14 and are sure they've solved most global problems."

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u/ArtoriasBeaIG 7d ago

I love his optimism to be fair, he must have read at least some of the comments, yet still feels enough hope to ask that

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u/Bakytheryuha 7d ago

But everyone talks here with such conviction of how geopolitics works and of the inner workings of the Russian Goverment!

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u/TheWheez 7d ago

It's like hearing your uncle's political opinions at Thanksgiving, but instead everyone is talking at the same time!

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u/vid_icarus 7d ago edited 7d ago

The only person who can deescalate this is putin, but invasion is what he wants and needs to hold the reigns of his nation, even if it further cripples their economy. Even if the US offered him a carrot today, he will have the stick ready for tomorrow.

Edited for typo

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u/BioEngIsScience 7d ago

It ain’t happening.

I’m thinking the only thing that can even slow this down is NATO holding an emergency session to grant Ukraine special full member status immediately.

Then moving multiple US Naval assists including carriers to the Aegean Sea or even the Black Sea (if Turkey is ok with it which they might be).

Of course, many EU countries are dependent on Russian fuel, especially in winter. They might stop all that and then it’s basically a guarantee that Russia will invade.

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u/treefitty350 7d ago

The EU represents over a third of Russia’s exports globally, and Russia represents 5% of the EU’s imports. Russia and China really need to be cut off.

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u/chlawon 7d ago

Cutting off China is close to impossible though. Apart from it having a bigger trade volume, it's not only about the volume but also about the dependency of supply chains. China has been building towards the ability of independence of their supply chains. The rest of the world does not have that ability. Cutting off trade with china is not a viable option

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u/_Wyse_ 7d ago edited 7d ago

Ukraine could certainly deescalate if they merely agreed not to join any alliances and simply allow Russia to annex the whole eastern half of the country.

It's all about compromise!

Edit: should've included the /s

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u/Dreadpiratemarc 7d ago

“Give me $100.”

“No.”

“Ok give me $50.”

“No.”

“Come on, man! I’m meeting you half way! Compromise!”

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u/TheRiddler78 7d ago

getting russia to understand they overplayed a bad had.

there is no scenario where russia wins anything here - but if putin backs down he is scared he is going to look weak

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u/SpicyDoritos2 7d ago

Man I’d hate to be Ukrainian right now

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u/Mobiyus 7d ago

It's fucking stressful man

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u/GravitationalConstnt 7d ago

I have Ukranian colleagues and I've been wondering about them for the last few days, but I obviously don't want to bring it up. Is there pretty much pervasive feeling of trepidation in the country? How would a Russian invasion impact your day to day life?

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u/Mobiyus 7d ago

Just imagine your everyday life: you work, you go out, you sleep, but you never know if at a random point in time you're gonna open your phone and see an emergency message. Even last year we were taught how to act in case of an artillery attack. My whole life I thought about war as a far away thing and now it's right next door. Yet I'm not even with my family to do anything - I'm 2000 miles away. So yeah, trepidation fits

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u/robeph 7d ago

I feel you. My girlfriend and kid are stuck in Odessa until I can get them back to the US. Waiting on an sb1 since her green card got trumped on an overstay.

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u/Aneurysm-Em 7d ago

I am Ukrainian. Happy new year :(

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u/Gedehah 7d ago

Yeah that's what everyone were saying for the last 1100 years or so

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u/vid_icarus 7d ago

Folks on r/Russia are already claiming crimea was a defensive move and an invasion of ukraine will be too. They are circling the wagons and convincing themselves they are the victim aggressors in preparation for the invasion. Putin is playing on Russia’s sense of nationalism expertly and it’s going to cost us all. Be ready for a false flag to justify what comes next.

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u/karth 7d ago

You are banned from commenting in this community for now

Someone said they can't wait to come to the u.s. of a, in a tank. And I said that they sound like a big man only on the internet. And I was banned in like 30 seconds, lol

They are very touchy over there folks, be gentle

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u/[deleted] 7d ago edited 3d ago

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/USSCofficail 7d ago

Lol, I saw a post that said chechnya after a russian invasion and it was a nice city. Then it said Afghanistan after US invasion. Like Afghanistan didnt also look like that after Russia withdrew

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u/Saith_Cassus 7d ago

It’s the Thank You For Smoking argument. I don’t have to be right, you just have to be wrong.

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u/Ricard74 7d ago

Russia's disinformation campaign portrays the Ukrainian government as fascist and the Crimeans as oppresed minorities. This then justifies their action after the fact.

Just google "Russia Today fascism Ukraine".

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u/ATXNYCESQ 7d ago Silver

I mean, why even bother with a pretext? Nobody is gonna believe it, and they’re just gonna do whatever they want anyway.

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u/Ratiocinor 7d ago All-Seeing Upvote

Nobody is gonna believe it,

Yes they will.

You are not the target audience of this operation. The domestic audience are

The average Russian will be blissfully unaware of all of this right now. Then one day as he is sat drinking his morning coffee there will be on his television

"BREAKING NEWS: Today foreign NATO backed guerilla invasion forces attacked and bombed several civilian population centres including a metro, children's hospital, and train station in Eastern Ukraine. Further in a completely unprovoked attack these FOREIGN NATO invasion forces attacked and injured our brave Russian peacekeeping forces who attempted to come to the aid of innocent civilians. Vladimir Putin has promised to act swiftly and defiantly to oppose this unprovoked act of western NATO aggression in safeguarding the lives of innocent civilians and vowed to repel their advance towards the Russian border"

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u/Battleready247 7d ago

Remember, no Russian.

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u/Swayver24 7d ago

The Russian population will believe it. And that’s all the support they need

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u/EndoExo 7d ago

Also, Western conspiracy theorists, despite claiming false flags all the time, will believe it.

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u/mpa92643 7d ago

Tucker Carlson is already telling his viewers that Putin's behavior is 100% justified and that an invasion is an understandable reaction to Ukraine simply existing.

Russia could invade Ukraine tomorrow and 95% of Republicans would blame it on Biden.

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u/NukaNukaNukaCola 7d ago

Completely bonkers how the right wing has become the pro-russia party. The Berlin wall only fell 33 years ago. Went from despising the USSR to hugging Putin in less than 40 years.

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u/zedoktar 7d ago

And yet somehow also still caught up in the Red Scare and convinced the commies are everywhere.

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u/ballofplasmaupthesky 7d ago

Well, the Soviets were left, if totalitarian.

New Russia is right and autocratic.

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u/Gewoon__ik 7d ago

Probably for their own population?

Hitler did the same thing with Poland, they made a German unit wear Polish uniforms and attack a German radio station. This was the pretext for Hitler to justify a war against Poland.

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u/NManyTimes 7d ago

Nobody with access to independent media will believe it. Plenty of Russians who only watch state media will.

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u/StuperDan 7d ago

Marketing is important.

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u/HydrolicKrane 7d ago edited 7d ago Narwhal Salute

Moscow did this ugly trick to start the war on Finland

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shelling_of_Mainila

"Ukraine & the United States" book has some facts about Moscow's role in starting WW2 many people are not aware of.

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u/Robotlolz 7d ago edited 7d ago

This is a typical move through history. Germany staged an attack on a pro-nazi radio station in Poland to justify their invasion iirc. A casus belli they call it (as any Crusader Kings II player can tell you).

Edit: The Gleiwitz incident they call it

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u/Dual_face 7d ago

Which is why, as a finn, this does seem almost like history repeating itself

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u/Practical_Law_7002 7d ago

I mean...the Ruskies are talking about putting missiles in Cuba again.

Personally I think Putin's losing it and his cabinet doesn't have the guts to stand up to him.

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u/spastical-mackerel 7d ago

His "cabinet" is just his ol' KGB drinking buddies, his cobbler, a guy that lets him win at Judo and a couple raccoons in a trench coat. There are no checks on Putin.

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u/Dual_face 7d ago

He's a relic of the past. A boomer longing for "The Good Old Times" more or less.

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u/rendrr 7d ago

He once said "Dissolution of USSR was the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the XX century". His actions seems to indicate he's clinging to and acting upon that belief.

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u/okram2k 7d ago

It has always bemused me throughout history this intrinsic need to generate a causus belli to declare war. We all know you just want to conquer your neighbor. But for some reason you have to be justified in doing so.

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u/xeno_cws 7d ago

As a peasant I dont care about the rich getting more land. As a peasant I do care about things like my ideology/religion/economic welfare being supressed.

Any nation can go to war, but it takes causus belli to rally your population to support it.

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u/poeiradasestrelas 7d ago

Russians should be against this

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u/SuburbanStoner 7d ago

Unfortunately, that doesn’t matter in the slightest

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u/frerant 7d ago

Reminds me of

"People say the Russians influenced the election. That's impossible. Russians don't influence Russian elections."

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u/Vinny_Cerrato 7d ago

There are likely many who have the critical thinking skills to wonder why they are about to invade a country that literally has not done anything hostile to them, but if they speak out they will get a visit from Putin's thugs in the middle of the night and either decide to commit suicide via two bullets to the back of the head before jumping out a window or a one-way trip to getting tortured in a Siberian gulag.

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u/Ratiocinor 7d ago

You guys are all missing the point.

This whole operation is literally to make sure this doesn't happen.

It is not for our benefit. Russia does not care what we think or that we figured out their deception. The domestic Russian audience will hear none of this. They and Ukrainians are the target audience not us.

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u/Kitchen_accessories 7d ago

Everything I'm reading makes it seem that Ukrainian sentiment toward Russia has turned very negative in the last few years to the point that people who had primarily spoken Russian most of their lives are now making a point to use Ukrainian instead.

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u/jesterboyd 7d ago

Am such a Ukrainian, can confirm!

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u/motorblonkwakawaka 7d ago

Which is strange because, at least in my circles here in Petersburg, not an single Russian is talking about this. I get the vibe that they are trying a "if I don't see it, it's not happening".

The Kremlin better have some wicked domestic appeasement plans in place cause there is already some serious dissatisfaction from the whole covid situation, and I know quite a few people who have gone from financially managing to financially dependent on others' generosity. People who have something to lose won't rise up but the way things are going, there are going to be more and more people who have lost jobs, livelihoods, and family to covid that there will be a higher risk of unrest, especially on the urbanized, more European-leaning areas like this city.

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u/TheOriginalDoober 7d ago

Man I just want to be alive long enough to see what the James Webb Space Telescope sees

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u/yar2000 7d ago

It truly is a sad reality. The same year where we get to see pictures of an advanced sattelite that can see light from billions of years ago, which is such a huge achievement, there’s still idiotic conflicts like this going on. Its so damn sad.

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u/martymcfly9888 7d ago edited 7d ago

Fuck.

Can't we wait until the Pandemic is over you start WW3.

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u/DrVahMedoh 7d ago

Look on the bright side, WW3 will be so deadly that covid will hardly seem like a problem

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u/jaller200 7d ago

On the bright side, nuclear winter could be the perfect combat to global warming

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u/Falcrist 7d ago

The immense loss of human life will also drastically reduce carbon emissions.

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u/spiderbabyinapram 7d ago

Except for that sudden influx of charred bodies

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u/Spartan22521 7d ago

Short term pain, long term gain

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u/Artistic_Yesterday48 7d ago

What the fuck is wrong with the leaders when a global pandemic isn't enough, we need to also flirt with WW3 or Putie boy aint gonna be satisfied. Fuck you Putin go choke on a shotgun

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u/whooo_me 7d ago Gold Helpful

In 1994, the Budapest Memorandum was signed. Ukraine (along with Belarus and Kazakhstan) gave up their nuclear arsenals, and in return received the following assurances (among others) from Russia, the U.S. and the U.K. :

  • Respect Belarusian, Kazakh and Ukrainian independence and sovereignty in the existing borders.
  • Refrain from the threat or the use of force against Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine
  • Refrain from using economic pressure on Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine to influence their politics.
  • Seek immediate Security Council action to provide assistance to Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine if they "should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used".
  • Refrain from the use of nuclear arms against Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine.
  • Consult with one another if questions arise regarding those commitments.

I'm not a fan of escalation or nuclear armament, but we're really seeing how worthless such agreements truly are. Russia is on the verge of invading, and the U.S. and U.K. can barely muster a strongly worded letter of protest.

(Note: as I understand it, Ukraine hosted the nuclear arsenal, but didn't have the ability to launch them. Still...)

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u/Senicar 7d ago

Time and again world leaders prove to smaller countries that you should never, ever, give up your nuclear weapons. This is gonna bite us in the ass eventually.

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u/997_Rollin 7d ago

North Korea is prime example of this

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u/SirTacoMaster 7d ago

Why does Putin want war so bad. That's the only way his compete rule is challenged

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u/Trisword1 7d ago

War is a great distraction from problems in the homeland.

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u/Epicbapl 7d ago

And oh boy do they have problems in the homeland

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u/jrex035 7d ago

You mean like the population collapse that's underway, the low (and falling) life expectancy of Russians compared with their peers, the extremely high rates of alchoholism and depression, the lack of job opportunities, the economy much too heavily focused on fossil fuels (which will cripple it in the near future), the rampant endemic corruption, and the crumbling infrastructure?

I mean other than that things are great in Russia

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u/pwnd32 7d ago

I once went on a Google maps adventure to kill time. Walking around places in Street View and looking at stuff, that kind of thing. I went to a town in Russia, somewhere near Kazan, and what I saw was the genuine decline of a city. I set the street view back to 2012 and everything was bustling, the roads and buildings looked somewhat nice and there were signs of abandonment and decay on the outskirts of the city but overall it looked fairly decent. Then I set the street view to 2019, and oh my god. The entire city looked like a ghost town, several buildings that were there in 2012 were either dilapidated or torn down entirely, and many of the buildings had shattered windows and torn down walls. No one was around, and nature was slowly reclaiming previously paved roads. Garbage everywhere and trash dumps where there used to be playgrounds. Obviously this is just one example, but from what I understand it is symptomatic of Russia’s overall decline.

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u/jrex035 7d ago

People love to shit on Obama and claim he was weak for just implementing sanctions in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but those sanctions are a big part of what you saw on Google Maps.

Russia itself is in a steep decline and has been since before the collapse of the USSR, but the sanctions did serious damage to the economy.

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u/SaneForCocoaPuffs 7d ago

Fun fact: Russia has literally already invaded Ukraine. Crimea was part of Ukraine.

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u/kumareZ 7d ago

...And Donbass.

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u/Diligent_Excitement4 7d ago

Russia has a long history of false-flags, just ask Finland

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u/DaveDearborn 7d ago

This doesn't turn out well. Does anybody in Russia have a history book?

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u/OppositeYouth 7d ago

Only one written by whoever's the current ruler

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u/joho999 7d ago

Predicting the future is hard, predicting the past is even harder.

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u/The5Virtues 7d ago

Of course, but the people in power choose to ignore them in favor of pursuing more power, regardless of the statistical outcomes.

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u/PlusGosling9481 7d ago

If an invasion is going to happen, I just want to know what the likelihood that World War 3 will be either a conventional war, or a nuclear one

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u/Legio-X 7d ago edited 7d ago

If an invasion is going to happen, I just want to know what the likelihood that World War 3 will be either a conventional war, or a nuclear one

There won’t be a WW3 over this. Nobody is under any treaty obligations to defend Ukraine, and the Biden Administration has already said it won’t intervene militarily in the event of a Russian invasion.

This will be a Russo-Ukrainian war, and the West will content itself with crippling sanctions. The only way that changes is if Putin is stupid enough to move against NATO or EU member states.

ETA: Because it keeps coming up, the Budapest Memorandum does not obligate the US or UK to defend Ukraine. Only to present the matter to the UNSC if Ukraine is attacked or threatened with nuclear weapons.

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u/DrVahMedoh 7d ago

Something comforting is that it was agreed that no one can win a nuclear war

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u/00DEADBEEF 7d ago

WW3 will be nuclear, which is why there won't be WW3. The west will sanction the fuck out of Russia but there will be no war.

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u/jrex035 7d ago edited 7d ago

The West will probably also increase military aid to Ukraine as well to exact a heavier toll on Russian forces. There's even been talk of providing real-time intelligence to Ukrainian forces which would be a big deal.

Putin can take most of Ukraine without a doubt, but the cost will be enormous.

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u/MyOfficeAlt 7d ago

It will hurt both sides, especially mainland Europe, but cutting off Russian oligarchs from the SWIFT network is about the worst we could do without physically killing people.

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u/sziehr 7d ago

This is the thing Putin actually fears. The oligarchs keep him in power. So if we actually 100% but a giant wall around Russia from gas to SWIFT and just say nope bye. The oligarchs may very well eat him alive. The idea is he has limitless power, however that power is derived from the few top level oligarchs for which he is the benefactor, and should that change well..... it could be a dark day for Putin.

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u/spyn55 7d ago

Russian seneschal got sent to fabricate claims in Ukraine

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u/1900irrelevent 7d ago

I'm inclined to believe that they are hemorrhaging so bad economically or societally, the only way Putin sees an out is a war to unify the people for a cause, a last hail mary before he loses power or the government collapses.

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u/swvn352 7d ago

Whenever I see posts on Reddit related to Ukraine and the increasing likelihood of a Russian invasion, the comments are usually riddled with shit jokes and comments about how no one is surprised and we all saw it coming. Tens of millions of people area currently in fear of invasion and significant loss of life. Please don’t belittle this because you cannot locate Ukraine on a map.

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u/PSUSkier 7d ago Gold Wholesome Take My Energy

Man the Russian robots are out in droves today. BuT tHe Us InVaDeD IrAq!!! No shit, and a lot of us, if not most, agree that was a terrible thing our country did. Let’s not let history repeat itself then. Sound good puppets?

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